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Keyword: sabato

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  • Sabato’s Final Predictions: Republicans Pick Up 8 Seats In The Senate

    11/03/2014 11:59:16 PM PST · by Bettyprob · 44 replies
    The Daily Caller ^ | 11/03/2014 | Derek Hunter
    Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and one of the most widely respected political analysts in the country, has come out with his final predictions for the 2014 midterms, and he predicts a good night for Republicans. In his “Crystal Ball” picks, Sabato see an 8-seat pick-up for Republicans in the Senate, which would give them a 2-seat majority.
  • Surf's Up - Will there be a GOP wave in the Senate—or a wipeout?

    08/26/2014 5:49:29 AM PDT · by paul544 · 83 replies
    Politico ^ | 8/25/2014 | Larry Sabato
    So where’s the wave? This is President Obama’s sixth-year-itch election. The map of states with contested Senate seats could hardly be better from the Republicans’ vantage point. And the breaks this year—strong candidates, avoidance of damaging gaffes, issues such as Obamacare and immigration that stir the party base—have mainly gone the GOP’s way, very unlike 2012
  • Larry Sabato: Despite Mississippi loss, Tea Party 'is alive and well'

    06/27/2014 9:58:01 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 11 replies
    The Tea Party's failure to knock off long-time Mississippi GOP Sen. Thad Cochran has depressed supporters, but the tight race not only showed that the movement is alive, but also that it is here to stay, according to the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. In a new analysis of the race between Cochran and state Sen. Chris McDaniel, the U.Va. political team, headed by Larry Sabato, found that competing ably with the establishment is a strong indicator that the Tea Party itself is become more established and a force that GOP leaders are going to have to deal with....
  • 2016 Republican Presidential Update: A New, Familiar Name at the Top: Jeb Bush Leads the Pack.

    03/20/2014 7:22:44 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 64 replies
    Sabato's Crystal Ball: U.Va. Center for Politics ^ | 03/20/2013 | Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik,
    In our first ranking of the very large and very unsettled 2016 Republican presidential field back in April of last year, we decided to not even include the name of one of the brightest stars in the GOP universe: Jeb Bush. We just didnÂ’t think, at the time, that the former Florida governor and brother and son of presidents was all that interested in running.But during 2013 and into this new year, weÂ’ve gotten the sense, like many others, that things might be changing. So much so that we now consider Bush the leader of the field if he decides...
  • Republicans Need a Champion in 2016 (Guess which two he suggests?)

    03/04/2014 7:40:03 PM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 43 replies
    Politico Magazine ^ | March 3, 2014 | Professor Larry J. Sabato
    e are already at the point in this prematurely unfolding 2016 presidential campaign when a glance down the list of prospective candidates can cause most observers to wince. As that seductive and sultry crooner Peggy Lee once sang, “Is that all there is?” At the U.Va. Crystal Ball, we currently have 11 Republicans and nine Democrats as probable or possible presidential contenders. The Democrats have fewer and more tentative contenders because of the paralyzing gravitational pull of “Planet Hillary,” as the New York Times Magazine described the Clinton operation. The former secretary of state is a kind of massive Jupiter...
  • Sabato's Crystal Ball (Larry Predicts a 2nd Term for Obama)

    11/05/2012 8:01:38 AM PST · by Livin_large · 40 replies
    Center for Politics ^ | November 5, 2012 | Larry Sabato
    With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes. This has been a roller-coaster campaign, though very tight ever since Romney dramatically outshone Obama in the first debate in Denver on Oct. 3. Yet for a challenger to defeat an incumbent, the fates must be with the challenger again and again. Who could have imagined...
  • Sabato: Obama's Convention Bounce Will Not Last

    09/10/2012 8:05:39 PM PDT · by NKP_Vet · 14 replies
    http;//www.newsmax.com ^ | September 10, 2012 | Jim Meyers and John Bachman
    The boost for President Obama in polls following the Democratic National Convention is a “classic polling bounce” which will fade in a few weeks, University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato tells Newsmax. Sabato also says this year is the “last gasp” of four-day national conventions due to viewer disinterest. And he predicts that with few voters remaining undecided, the key to the November election will not be which side attracts swing voters but who energizes the base and gets out the vote.
  • Did You See Larry Sabato's Face?

    08/07/2012 5:18:18 PM PDT · by yetidog · 15 replies
    August 7, 2012 | Vanity
    Sabaoto - Mr. Balanced - just got it handed to him by O"Reilly.
  • Larry Sabato advises Romney to pick a "vanilla" RINO as VP.

    05/24/2012 11:48:15 AM PDT · by publius321 · 47 replies
    On the May 23, 2012 addition of Fox & Friends, Larry Sabato advises Mitt Romney NOT to select a conservative running mate because "Obama has already united the base". This is the kind of disrespect the conservative majority receives from these leftist hi-jackers. It is getting worse, not better. So the choice this Fall is between worshipping The Beast or The Anti-Christ. Some choice... (my video comment)
  • Larry Sabato: Obama 'Unloading' on Romney Early to Thwart Campaign

    11/29/2011 8:18:39 AM PST · by Saundra Duffy · 30 replies
    NewsMax.com ^ | November 23, 2011 | David A. Patten
    University of Virginia political guru Dr. Larry J. Sabato tells Newsmax that President Barack Obama’s re-election machine has launched an anti-Mitt Romney campaign that won’t stop attacking the former Massachusetts governor until Election Day 2012. “They are unloading on him early, and will never stop until Election Day,” Sabato tells Newsmax. “Now, if they can damage Romney early and get a weaker general election opponent like [former House Speaker] Newt Gingrich, they'll be delighted.” His remarks came as the Romney campaign fired back Wednesday at allegations they had distorted Obama’s words for a campaign ad running in New Hampshire. Romney's...
  • 2012 electoral map — as it stands

    04/21/2011 12:48:04 PM PDT · by library user · 61 replies
    Reuters ^ | April 21, 2011 | by James Pethokoukis
    ~ EXCERPT ~ This is how 2012 looks right now to elections guru Larry Sabato:Here is how the math works: Include the “Leans” states with the “Likely” and “Safe,” the numbers are as follows: 247 Democratic EVs,  180 Republican EVs, 111 Undecided. Just counting “Likely” and “Safe,” the numbers are as follows: 196 Democratic EVs, 170 Republican EVs, 172 Undecided.Of the tossup states, I would give the Rs IN (11), FL (29) and certainly at least one of VA, NC or OH. Some Leans D in the Upper Midwest are vulnerable, too.
  • Presidential Possibilities (Larry Sabato rates the GOP Presidential field - all 19 candidates)

    01/20/2011 12:02:28 PM PST · by Jack Black · 50 replies
    Precisely two years from today, America will be inaugurating a president. But much sooner, the full-blown contest for the White House will begin. Just a year from now, we’ll all be watching presidential candidates slog through the snows of Iowa and New Hampshire (with sunny side trips to Nevada and South Carolina). There is only one guarantee: It will be a year full of tumult and unexpected developments. Presidential general elections are often far more predictable than the nominating contests. Why? The general elections are shaped by fundamental factors (shape of the economy, war and peace, scandal, presence of an...
  • Larry Sabato Says Unpredictable “Coattail Effect” Could Put GOP over the Top in U.S. Senate – Video

    10/29/2010 3:10:20 PM PDT · by Federalist Patriot · 20 replies
    Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | October 29, 2010 | Brian
    Here is video of a great interview with University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato on Fox Business Network, where he discussed the upcoming Midterm Elections. Sabato shared his final “Crystal Ball” predictions that the GOP will retake control of the House with a 55-seat net gain, and will gain 8-seats in the Senate – two short of what is needed for control there. But Sabato also said he believes the final margin in the House will likely be larger than the 55-seats he has predicted, and holds open the possibility the Republicans could take control of the U.S. Senate as...
  • The Crystal Ball’s Final Calls (GOP Gains: +55 for House, +8 for Senate +8-9 Governors)

    10/28/2010 5:49:03 AM PDT · by randita · 86 replies · 1+ views
    Center for Politics ^ | 10/28/10 | Larry J. Sabato
    The Crystal Ball’s Final Calls Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics October 28th, 2010 The time has finally come in this two-year election cycle to make the final calls. Thanks to everyone who has helped us by providing background info, tips, private polls, observations, and constructive criticism. We operate on the proverbial shoestring and we’re outside the Beltway (a plus and a minus), so we can always use the assistance. Our tradition is that we make a prediction in every contest. We’ve been studying these states, districts, and candidates for many years, and we feel entitled! We’re proud...
  • House Race Changes (Sabato)

    10/14/2010 5:39:21 AM PDT · by randita · 12 replies
    Center for Politics ^ | 10/14/10 | Isaac Wood
    House Race Changes Isaac Wood, House Race Editor October 14th, 2010 Polling, independent expenditures, and the general intensification of campaigns across the country provide us with new clues about the November outcome that is in store. Our overall view of the Republican wave remains the same, at a GOP net pick-up of 47 seats, but we now know more about which seats are truly endangered and where each side was just tilting at windmills. This week, we make 26 changes to our House ratings. Among our changes this week, there is a lone bright spot for Democrats. In OH-13, incumbent...
  • House Ratings Changes

    10/01/2010 7:48:06 AM PDT · by iowamark · 7 replies · 1+ views
    Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball-Univ. of Virginia ^ | 10/01/2010 | Isaac Wood, House Race Editor
    As Election Day nears, more of the House election picture comes into focus. While our overall view of the level of Republican gains remains unchanged at +47 seats, we are changing the ratings of many key races as the list of endangered seats, and their relative degrees of vulnerability, becomes clear. This week we are changing the ratings of 21 House races, all in the direction of the GOP, including 10 seats formerly listed as Toss-Ups that are now leaning into the Republican column. Toss-Up to Leans Republican (10 races) AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick-D): When an incumbent releases a month-old internal poll...
  • House Ratings Changes (Sabato Update-ALL favor the GOP)

    09/30/2010 6:20:45 AM PDT · by randita · 12 replies
    Center for Politics ^ | 9/30/10 | Isaac Wood
    House Ratings Changes Isaac Wood, House Race Editor September 30th, 2010 As Election Day nears, more of the House election picture comes into focus. While our overall view of the level of Republican gains remains unchanged at +47 seats, we are changing the ratings of many key races as the list of endangered seats, and their relative degrees of vulnerability, becomes clear. This week we are changing the ratings of 21 House races, all in the direction of the GOP, including 10 seats formerly listed as Toss-Ups that are now leaning into the Republican column. Toss-Up to Leans Republican (10...
  • Key House Races - 4 September 2010 Update - Sabato & EP Predict Republican Majority

    09/04/2010 8:33:54 AM PDT · by InterceptPoint · 54 replies · 1+ views
    www.KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 4 September 2010 | Interceptpoint
    This weeks news:It was a YET ANOTHER BIG WEEK for our "Experts" with a total of 37 upgrades to the races on the KHR Master List. It was a 37 to ZERO shutout - none of the upgrades favored the Dems. There were major changes from Sabato and Cook, and a few from EP and RCP. CQ Politics and Rothenberg were silent.BUT THE REALLY BIG NEWS THIS WEEK was: Larry Sabato predicting a 47 seat pickup for the Republicans. Election Projection  followed a day later with a projection of a 41 seat pickup. We need 39 seats to retake the...
  • Sixty Days to Go The Crystal Ball's Labor Day Predictions (Sabato raises estimate of Dem losses)

    09/02/2010 4:59:37 AM PDT · by tlb · 28 replies
    Center for Politics ^ | Sep 2, 2010 | Larry J. Sabato
    The Democrats’ self-proclaimed “Recovery Summer” has become a term of derision. Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains. In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of...
  • Sabato Says Sharron Angle Likely to Win Tonight; Harry Reid “In Deep Trouble” in Nevada – Video

    06/08/2010 10:33:40 AM PDT · by Federalist Patriot · 17 replies · 20+ views
    Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | June 8, 2010 | Brian
    Here is a video preview of the primary elections that take place today in 12 states. The GOP Primary in Nevada, and the Democrat runoff in Arkansas take center stage, along with California’s GOP primary. Larry Sabato says Sharron Angle is likely to be the GOP Nominee in Nevada. He also said Harry Reid is “in deep trouble,” not polling anywhere near the 50% that incumbents should be polling at a minimum, and will have a tough time winning in November. Democrat Sen. Blanche Lincoln looks likely to lose the runoff to Bill Halter in Arkansas.
  • What to Expect in November An Update on the House of Representatives

    02/26/2010 3:36:50 PM PST · by Palmetto Patriot · 40 replies · 1,056+ views
    Sabato's Crystal Ball ^ | 2/25/2010 | Alan I. Abramowitz
    This week we employ the other method, statistical regression analysis that uses variables such as the president’s Gallup Poll rating and the basic facts of the election. The author is Prof. Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, a frequent contributor to the Crystal Ball and one of the nation’s most distinguished political scientists. Prof. Abramowitz’s model for the 2010 House midterm election has been perhaps the most accurate of all political science models in projecting past midterm elections. As Prof. Abramowitz explains, the key variables in the 2010 election are the simple realities that (1) it is the midterm election of...
  • McDonnell Could Lead GOP 'Landslide' in Virginia Race [Sabato calls McDonnell a 2012 VP contender]

    11/03/2009 3:36:29 PM PST · by rabscuttle385 · 15 replies · 1,214+ views
    Fox ^ | 2009-11-03
    With Republican Bob McDonnell holding a wide lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia race for governor, the former state attorney general could be at the fore of a GOP takeover on Election Day. (snip) Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Fox News he expects McDonnell to win big -- and usher other Republicans into office along the way. "McDonnell is not only going to win -- he's going to win by a landslide. He's going to pull his entire ticket to victory," he said, predicting GOP gains in the House of Delegates...
  • Larry Sabato Says if Bush Had a Van Jones there Would be Outcry of "Magnificent Proportions" - Video

    09/03/2009 5:35:13 PM PDT · by Federalist Patriot · 14 replies · 732+ views
    Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | September 3, 2009 | BrianinMO
    Here is video of a Fox News report tonight by James Rosen on Radical Obama "Green Jobs Czar" Van Jones. The report details all the major evidence of his radicalism that has surfaced over the last couple of weeks. Significantly, toward the end of the report, University of Virginia Political Science Professor Larry Sabato said the "vetting process" clearly broke down with "Mr. Jones." Sabato went on to say: "If a Bush official had made anything comparable to what Mr. Jones has said and done, no doubt there would have been a national hurrah (fuss) of magnificent proportions."This means the...
  • Are The Top Journalists Insiders Or Outsiders? (talking Cronkite)

    08/01/2009 8:37:53 AM PDT · by bilhosty · 13 replies · 784+ views
    Rasmussen Reports ^ | August 01, 2009 | Larry Sabato
    Something truly astonishing appeared in a Washington Post column on July 25, 2009 (click here to view). It was written by Frank Mankiewicz, former press secretary to Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY) and the man who is perhaps most widely remembered for announcing RFK's death in June 1968. Mankiewicz was also the political director of Democratic presidential nominee George McGovern's losing 1972 campaign. The column contained a two-fold revelation about the just-deceased Walter Cronkite, the longtime CBS News anchorman. Here are the disclosures, in Mankiewicz' own words:
  • Obama's chance of winning big

    10/21/2008 8:10:06 AM PDT · by pissant · 40 replies · 1,373+ views
    BBC ^ | 10/21/08 | Larry Sabato
    The whisper of September has turned to a roar in October: Barack Obama may be on the verge of a landslide victory. A year ago, no one on the planet could have conceived of such a thing. After all, Democrats have elected just two American presidents since 1968, moderate white Southerners Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, both by modest popular vote margins. In 2008 Democrats took a daring leap of faith and chose a far more liberal nominee who is the first African-American standard-bearer - no minor matter in a nation that is just 11% black and has been plagued...
  • Joseph Biden's Plagiarism; Michael Dukakis's 'Attack Video' – 1988

    08/22/2008 11:43:36 PM PDT · by JerseyHighlander · 12 replies · 1,020+ views
    Joseph Biden's Plagiarism; Michael Dukakis's 'Attack Video' – 1988 Feeding Frenzy Democratic presidential candidate Joseph R. Biden Jr., a U.S. senator from Delaware, was driven from the nomination battle after delivering, without attribution, passages from a speech by British Labor party leader Neil Kinnock. A barrage of subsidiary revelations by the press also contributed to Biden's withdrawal: a serious plagiarism incident involving Biden during his law school years; the senator's boastful exaggerations of his academic record at a New Hampshire campaign event; and the discovery of other quotations in Biden's speeches pilfered from past Democratic politicians.
  • Is a 1-term promise critical for McCain?

    07/18/2008 10:49:32 PM PDT · by rabscuttle385 · 46 replies · 251+ views
    The Post and Courier, Charleston, SC ^ | 2008-07-19 | Robert Behre
    Republican presidential hopeful John McCain can help his chances by vowing to serve only one term — a recognition of his relatively advanced age and a promise that his time in the White House wouldn't be tainted by the politics of seeking a second term. That's according to Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics and a professor whose "Crystal Ball" Internet site bills itself as "the Web's most accurate political analysis."
  • Cool Hillary shines in hostage crisis ["Dress Rehearsal" for President Alert!]

    12/01/2007 6:58:46 PM PST · by melt · 80 replies · 207+ views
    TimesOnline.com ^ | 12/02/07 | Tony Allen-Mills
    BY modern American standards it was a very minor crisis, but a bizarre hostage-taking episode at one of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign offices in New Hampshire on Friday offered the former first lady an unexpected opportunity to display her leadership qualities. Clinton was far from the scene and never at risk from a mentally unstable man who eventually surrendered to police after holding three campaign workers hostage. Yet her calm demeanour and authoritative response to a potentially ugly drama was yesterday earning her widespread praise. Clinton followed the incident from her home in Washington, then flew to New Hampshire to...
  • We need a new Constitution

    10/10/2007 5:39:34 AM PDT · by shrinkermd · 144 replies · 2,038+ views
    LA Times ^ | 10 October 2007 | Larry J. Sabato
    The presidential candidates are offering prescriptions for everything from Iraq to healthcare, but listen closely. Their fixes are situational and incremental. Meanwhile, the underlying structural problems in American politics and government are systemic and prevent us from solving our most intractable challenges. If we really want to make progress and achieve greater fairness as a society, it is time for elemental change. And we should start by looking at the Constitution, with the goal of holding a new Constitutional Convention. Sound radical? If so, then the founders were radicals. They would be amazed and disappointed that after 220 years, the...
  • Sabato Track Record

    11/07/2006 4:11:51 AM PST · by NavVet · 18 replies · 1,088+ views
    Vanity | N/A | Vanity
    Every election, I seem to recall Sabato and Dick Morris being wrong at some point. Although Morris goes back and forth so much it's hard to tell. Is there any website that tracks the accuracy of pundit predictions. I'm particularly interested in a historical look at Sabato's so-called "crystal ball."
  • Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS

    11/06/2006 1:41:32 AM PST · by YaYa123 · 85 replies · 3,267+ views
    Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball ^ | 6 November 2006 | Larry J. Sabato and David Wasserman
    With one day to go, the situation is still very fluid. This weekend, we had a potentially pro-GOP event, the sentencing of Saddam Hussein, and a potentially pro-Democratic event, the unveiling of Rev. Ted Haggard's family values hypocrisy. The Crystal Ball's initial guess was that both news headlines, while attention-grabbing, would have only a marginal impact on the vote (and it's also worth noting that a record percentage of voters will have voted early this year, softening any impact of the last-minute headlines). Yet something is happening. Both the Washington Post/ABC News poll and the new Pew survey show a...
  • Larry Sabato Makes Senate Predictions

    11/02/2006 11:38:59 AM PST · by albie · 62 replies · 2,760+ views
    Larry Sabato has made his official list of Senate predictions on Newsmax. He pick Webb over Allen in Virginia. Does anyone know Sabatos' record of accuracy?
  • Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONS

    11/02/2006 8:52:38 AM PST · by finnman69 · 147 replies · 4,312+ views
    Center for Politics ^ | 11/2/06 | Larry Sabato
    www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONSCampaigns Clamor for Last-Minute Midterm "Mo"Larry J. Sabato and David WassermanU.Va. Center for PoliticsNovember 2, 2006 Just how Democratic a year is 2006? Five days out, let's rephrase the question this way: when's the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year? We bet it's never happened before, and it certainly hasn't happened in the post-World War II era. After all, even when a party suffers miserable net losses, it usually picks up at least several...
  • Rove 2.0 (Dem paranoia alert)

    10/19/2006 9:21:40 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 46 replies · 1,418+ views
    Washington Monthly ^ | September 2006 | Rebecca Sinderbrand
    Dick Wadhams is the next Republican maestro of cutthroat campaigning. Can Democrats figure out how to stop him? This spring, former combat Marine, one-time Reagan Navy secretary, and first-time candidate James Webb surprised political experts by entering the Democratic Senate primary in Virginia at the last minute--and winning. Three days later, Webb shocked Washington again by pulling within five points of the heavy-spending incumbent, Republican George Allen, despite a cash crunch that had kept Webb off the air for weeks. Legendary Virginia pundit Larry Sabato gave an ominous reading of the situation: The state's voters didn't yet know much about...
  • Pundit Sabato draws own critics after claims against Allen

    09/30/2006 7:45:46 AM PDT · by freespirited · 52 replies · 1,327+ views
    Virginian-Pilot ^ | 9/30/06 | BILL SIZEMORE
    He's a professor. He's a pundit. Now some critics are accusing him of being a provocateur. Larry Sabato, the Norfolk-bred political scientist who is among the most widely quoted academics in America, dropped a very large pebble into the already roiled pond of Virginia politics this week when he joined the debate over U.S. Sen. George Allen's racial attitudes. The resulting ripples have been spreading far and wide all week. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, made national news Monday when he alleged on the MSNBC television show "Hardball" that Allen, a Republican, used...
  • Larry Sabato: Fair-minded Professor or Partisan Hack?

    09/28/2006 4:49:51 PM PDT · by freespirited · 32 replies · 989+ views
    Vanity | 9/28/06 | Freespirited
    A Powerline blog entry posted here this morning started me thinking about the origins of this week's hit pieces on Senator Allen. I would like to call attention to a few excerpts from this week's deluge. NY Times 9/26/06: "Christopher Taylor, now an anthropology professor at the Birmingham campus of the University of Alabama, said he heard Mr. Allen use an epithet to describe African-Americans in the early 1980’s. ...[He] initially wrote of his recollections in a private e-mail message to a **colleague** after the “macaca” incident. The message was eventually **forwarded to The New York Times**" According to Allens-A-team...
  • Webb Denies Ever Using Word as Epithet

    09/28/2006 8:39:55 AM PDT · by 7thson · 61 replies · 1,111+ views
    Washington ComPost ^ | Thursday, September 28, 2006 | Michael D. Shear
    Cragg, 67, who lives in Fairfax County, said on Wednesday that Webb described taking drives through the black neighborhood of Watts, where he and members of his ROTC unit used racial epithets and pointed fake guns at blacks to scare them.
  • Inside Info: Is Larry Sabato a partisan in disguise?

    09/27/2006 9:53:22 AM PDT · by WL-law · 51 replies · 2,334+ views
    self | 09-27-06 | WL-Law
    Many are questioning whether Larry Sabato's issued, then modified, then somewhat-withdrawn accusations against Sen. Allen amount to Sabato unmasking himself as a democrat partisan, posing as an impartial observer. I can add one new fact that I have personal knowledge of, one that is somewhat curious, and potentially relevant. Here it is: the person that Allen referred to as "Macaca", the person who was stalking the Allen campaign, is one of Sabato's students, in Sabato's class at UVA. I don't know whether this fact has been disclosed anywhere. Hmmmmmmm.............
  • Larry Sabato Recants, Didn't Hear Allen

    09/27/2006 7:42:34 AM PDT · by truthandlife · 178 replies · 4,893+ views
    Newsmax ^ | 9/27/06 | Newsmax Staff
    One of Virginia's best-known political analysts said he had never personally heard Sen. George Allen use racial epithets, despite saying on television a day earlier that the senator "did use the n-word." Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said Tuesday in an e-mail to The Associated Press, "I didn't personally hear GFA (Allen's initials) say the n-word. "My conclusion is based on the very credible testimony I have heard for weeks, mainly from people I personally know and knew in the '70s," Sabato wrote. Sabato, a classmate of Allen's at the University of Virginia...
  • RNC Members Reject Doom-and-Gloom Scenario

    08/21/2006 7:16:12 AM PDT · by Reagan Man · 20 replies · 646+ views
    Human Events ^ | August 21 2006 | John Gizzi
    MINNEAPOLIS—As the Republican National Committee closed its recent summer meeting at the Sheraton Bloomington Hotel here, two of the nation’s most-quoted political prognosticators told the Minneapolis Star Tribune that it was increasingly more likely that the Republicans would lose their majority in the House, and possibly in the Senate, in this November’s elections. Despite these gloomy forecasts from analysts, the members of the Republican National Committee with whom I spoke almost universally expressed confidence that the party would emerge triumphantly from the mid-term elections. Independent political analyst Charles Cook told the Star Tribune the Republicans could face “an electoral rout”...
  • The 2006 Midterms: Moving Towards Democrats

    08/04/2006 6:45:42 AM PDT · by FreeKeys · 279 replies · 4,200+ views
    Real Clear Politics ^ | August 04, 2006 | Larry Sabato and David Wasserman
    Just over one month ago, the Crystal Ball argued that a larger wave than currently existed at the time would have to build in order for Republicans to lose their congressional majorities. At the time, the race-by-race rather than national dynamic of competitive races pointed more towards a "micro-wave" than a "macro-wave" for out-of-power Democrats. But now, with a quarter of time elapsed between that pulse-reading and the election, surer signs are emerging that something more substantial than a "micro-wave" is heating up this summer. Historical trends and big picture indicators--generic congressional ballot tests and approval ratings of President Bush's...
  • MICRO-WAVE or MACRO-WAVE (Sabato projects Republicans hold the House)

    06/29/2006 1:54:58 AM PDT · by tlb · 18 replies · 1,262+ views
    Center for Politics ^ | June 29, 2006 | David Wasserman and Larry J. Sabato
    Just how perilously close are Republicans to losing their congressional majority in 2006? The way several independent observers and Democrats are talking and acting these days, you might guess the GOP's demise was all but a done deal. But a little more than four months out from the election, the Crystal Ball is not yet ready to view the GOP majority as a flimsy house of cards, nor in our estimation should Murtha fast-forward to helping Pelosi hand out committee gavels to the ranking members of his caucus. The Republican margin in the House of Representatives may be more tenuous...
  • Statehouses gleam for Democrats in 2006, but all that glistens is not gold

    02/02/2006 6:26:58 PM PST · by neverdem · 12 replies · 1,430+ views
    townhall.com ^ | Feb 2, 2006 | Larry J. Sabato
    The Democrats may or may not score real breakthroughs in the houses of Congress in 2006, but it's undeniable that they have opportunities galore in the Governorships this year. Opportunity is not reality, though, and on prior occasions the Democrats have fumbled away some key contests, as Shakespeare once penned, "in the twinkling of an eye." Yet at the starting gate, Democrats appear headed for control of a narrow majority of the statehouses, and it will be a setback for their 2008 presidential plans if they don't get there. Let's recap where we are at present. The Republicans hold 28...
  • 2006 Senate leans Democratic

    01/27/2006 8:42:08 AM PST · by moviewatcher · 50 replies · 2,136+ views
    Townhall.com ^ | 1/26/06 | Larry J. Sabato
    The long and short of the "War for the Senate" in 2006 is this: Democrats are a good bet to pick up two or three seats net. But for Democrats to regain control of the Senate, almost everything has to fall just right for them. In politics, very occasionally those things happen--but only rarely do all the dominoes fall in one direction. And the Democrats will have to win the world championship of dominoes for the Senate to become theirs again this year.
  • Sabato: The Presidential Prizefight '08 (Ideology Versus Electability Part II: The Dems)

    01/19/2006 2:55:16 AM PST · by RWR8189 · 19 replies · 958+ views
    U. Va. Center for Politics ^ | January 19, 2006 | Larry Sabato
    In last week's installment of the Crystal Ball, we explored the myriad of possible Republican White House contenders for 2008, the lack of an obvious successor to President Bush, as well as the wide open nature of the 2008 party primaries. This is only the fifth time since the dawn of the twentieth century that the incumbent President or Vice President has not been running--the earlier examples were 1908, 1920, 1928, and 1952.And now to the Democrats. The most compelling element of the 2008 contest for the Democrats, in the Crystal Ball's view, will be their burning desire to end...
  • Democrats Hope to Capitalize in Congress in 2006

    01/05/2006 5:28:10 PM PST · by Aussie Dasher · 7 replies · 555+ views
    FOXNews.com ^ | 6 January 2006 | Kelley Beaucar Vlahos
    WASHINGTON — Democrats hope the stars are aligned for a big victory in the 2006 mid-term elections, saying more than astrology is on their side — recent Capitol Hill scandals and wavering popularity of President Bush is helping to boost their chances for a congressional takeover. "We're in a very strong position right now," said Phil Singer, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "We're poised to make gains." Winning a majority of the House or Senate would be unlikely based on the current numbers, say most political observers. Still, Democrats are riding a growing wave of disenchantment with Republicans...
  • LIVE THREAD: UVa Center for Politics: "The 2006 ELECTIONS" C-span 2 9:00am EST, with Fred Barnes

    12/01/2005 5:39:36 AM PST · by ken5050 · 5 replies · 584+ views
    C-span
    FYI..C-span 2 will be televising all day today, from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, a forum on the 20006 elections. It's scheduled to start at 9:00am EST. The first panel, from 9-10:30, looks promising. It features Fred Barnes and the center's Larry Sabado...who often appears as a talking head on the cable news nets. Might be worthwhile checking out..
  • Kilgore aggressive at debate (Virginia)

    07/17/2005 8:24:50 AM PDT · by LdSentinal · 13 replies · 608+ views
    DailyProgress.com ^ | 7/17/05 | Bob Gibson
    WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, W.Va.--Virginia’s two major-party candidates for governor agreed Saturday that they offer vastly different visions for the state’s next chief executive, but found little other common ground in a feisty 90-minute debate in which Republican Jerry W. Kilgore proved more aggressive. Kilgore asserted several times during the Virginia Bar Association-sponsored event that Democrat Timothy M. Kaine would issue blanket clemency to death row inmates because he is opposed to capital punishment for philosophical and religious reasons. The Republican, a supporter of the death penalty and an abortion opponent, said Kaine has called for a moratorium on the death...
  • Senate 2006: From Venerable to Vulnerable The 14 seats most likely to change hands in 2006

    04/16/2005 4:54:25 AM PDT · by paltz · 48 replies · 2,141+ views
    centerforpolitics.org ^ | March 31, 2005 | Larry J. Sabato
    All Crystal Ball junkies know the drill. Every election year, most Senators skate by, especially the venerable elders who well fit their states. Meanwhile, a handful of Senators are vulnerable, and those are the contests we watch like hawks. In last week's Crystal Ball email ( http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2005032401), we examined seniority and the 109th Senate, as well as the seats that are currently open and those that might open between now and 2006. This week, we've brought you the 14 seats out of the 33 up for election that appear to be moderately to very vulnerable. In alphabetical order by state,...
  • Debate Over Brain-Damaged Florida Woman Renews Political Divide Over 'values'

    03/20/2005 2:15:46 PM PST · by Jean S · 70 replies · 1,896+ views
    Ap ^ | 3/20/05 | Tom Raum
    WASHINGTON (AP) - The Terri Schiavo case has been catapulted from a drawn-out medical and legal battle into a fast-paced political drama with Congress, the White House and the courts playing leading roles. Republicans see a vote for prolonging the life of the brain-damaged Florida woman as an opportunity to strengthen their support among religious conservatives, a vital constituency group, ahead of next year's congressional elections. For the most part, minority-party Democrats are asserting that congressional involvement in such a heart-wrenching private matter is unwarranted and unwise. But they are treading carefully, not wanting again to get clobbered on the...