Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball ^ | 6 November 2006 | Larry J. Sabato and David Wasserman

[grannylinedancer]

Sabato is a Democrat all the way (remember when he pounced on Allen saying he KNEW Allen said the "N" Word while in COLLEGE...fINALLY he had to admit he never actually HEARD him say it), he shows his stupidity in putting Tennessee (Ford) in the Democrat win column. That State has been in the REPUBLICAN Column for a week now, by 10 points. Where has HE been? I also do NOT think that every single other Race will fall Democrat. Puleeeze! I think We HOLD the Senate, losing DeWine but holding the rest of the Seats. I also think we hold the House BY ONE Seat. Should be an interesting year!

[ken5050]

Good morning...I taped MTP and watched it last night during halftime...Did you notice the body language of the Dems, Schumer and Emanuel...they weren't hyping much..seemed rather subdued..and BTW, Liddy did a great job...saying the Dems want to lose in Iraq..and Russert tried singlehandedly to win a CD for the Dems, smearing the GOP guy for a good 10 minutes about the Foley mess..

[Timeout]

I don't like it, but this is my prediction:

Lose:
Chafee
Santorum
Dewine
Allen

Gain:
Steele

Net loss: 3 seats

Big question mark on Allen, though. It kills me to put him in that category.

[nativist]

In his predictions you could tell he was actually stating what he hoped for. It almost as if he was thinking "Schumers putting a million into Arizona, there must be a good reason. The republicans are putting millions into Pennsylvania and Michigan and those races are over already."

I like the fact that Bush maximizes the vote as much as possible. He puts all his effort even into states we may lose. I think the 2000 election taught him a lesson. Maximize the popular vote and the rest will fall into place.

[6SJ7]

Cripes. I've gotten massages from a chair at the mall. It doesn't mean I'm itching to marry one.

Meanwhile, somewhere in Massachusetts...
"... and by the power vested in me by the State of Massachusetts, I now pronounce you husband and barcalounger."

[nativist]

The last poll I saw had Chafee up. I also find it hard to believe Allen will lose.

[Preachin']

This happens every election cycle these days.

The polls and the media always make it look like the democrats are WAY ahead, and then.... somehow.... at the last minute the GOP is pulling even or even pulling ahead.

They do this to keep the energy down on the conservative side, and then all of a sudden they have to lean to a much more honest prediction in order to save face once they realize just how effective the GOP get out the vote campaign has been.

I am so tired of this, and it proves that polls are generally meaningless until the last few day. Even then, they are still skewed to some point.

[mathluv]

I don't know what happened to MTP in my area. When I turned to that channel, I got Chrissy instead of Timmy. I read about Liddy on the Sunday Talk Show thread, and wanted to hear her. FNS has been unwatchable the last two weeks.

[CTGOPPER]

House CT 2 - I'm involved in this race. Courtney won't unseat Simmons. Last Simmons internal poll had Simmons up by 6. 2 years ago they had this race as a toss up and Simmons won by a good margin. If Simmons loses it will be a very long nite. It could happen but I would be very suprised.

[p[adre29]

In his predictions you could tell he was actually stating what he hoped for. It almost as if he was thinking "Schumers putting a million into Arizona, there must be a good reason. The republicans are putting millions into Pennsylvania and Michigan and those races are over already."

Exactly, and when the polls don't show a clear result he is just giving the race to the Democrat. Even the dhimmmi's admit our GOTV efforts are awesome, and yet they get no credit in Sabato's electoral view.

[Alas Babylon!]

The robocalls just utterly annoy me. I hang up on them. I don't care who they are. President Bush, whoever. I'm voting straight Republican so they don't need to waste their dime on me.

I can't see how an annoying phone call can help. And I doubt many people listen to the whole recording before hanging up.

[nativist]

He actually had Corker winning Tennessee but that race seems to be a wipe out. His method seems to be if its close its a Dem seat. As usual a Republican has to be winning by 8-10 points for it to be a "lean Republican".

Reminds me of 2000 when the media called Florida for Gore before the polls closed in heavily Republican pan handle but waited an hour to call Georgia, which Bush won by 11 points.

[Timeout]

I would like nothing more than to have egg on my face with those predictions!

[SaintDismas]

I agree with you on that one!!! How in the world do they think these things? I do understand their motives though on how they really think we still believe their garbage that they and their media spew forth 24-7, somehow depressing Republican turnout. I also think that they are scaring the mad conservative vote into coming home for the Republicans. They are just too scary to contemplate having the reigns of power. Conservatives just aren't that stupid.

[veronica]

Fallen pastor = GOP hypocrite = Republicans are phonies = depressed GOP base and/or let's vote Democrat! That's how it's being played on CNN anyway.

[LibLieSlayer]

Post a "carry" thread and ask no one to post anything bad about him too! If I can't say anything nice, I'll just say goodmorning.

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

We think the same about this issue... non-issue.

LLS

[CharlesWayneCT]

Most of us to NOT know who Ted Haggard is, but we DO know what a gay prostitute outing a republican is.

Christians understand sin, and we discipline our leadership, but we don't like people who have no concern for God taking advantage of Christians and then attacking them for personal gain.

This will remind people who might have been coming around to acceptance, rather than tolerance, of gays, of a negative side of the gay agenda.

I doubt Saddam's sentence will help that much, a not-guilty would have really hurt us, or even a delay.

However, the fact that Iraq didn't blow up yesterday is a good thing.

[moose2004]

Larry Sabato is a Chuck Robb/Gerald Baliles/Doug Wilder/Mark Warner "moderate" dem, just like his boss John T Casteen III, the President of the University of Virginia, who happened to be Governor Chuck Robb's Secretary of Education 1981-1985. Also, Sabato hails from Charlottesville, Virginia, a very Blue City in a Red State.

[chief911]

Insult, no. Wonder aloud why anyone gives this guy the time of day anymore, yes.