Posted on 11/06/2006 1:41:32 AM PST by YaYa123
"With the Republican with a 1 million vote edge and 99% of the precincts reporting, we at CBS news still have this race as too close to call."
"With the democrat leading by 250 votes and with 5% of the precincts reporting, we ata CBS declare a super duper landslide victory for the democrat".
They love him at DU...
Then I care not to comment. There is no reason to take Sabato seriously as a "pundit". He entered a senate race with an allegation he could not back up, and had to retract it. I really don't know why people bother with these predictions. They are always wrong.
I see they are into some strange logical fallacies over there...
It's the only strategy that makes sense. The way the committee process works, if we want Rs in charge of legislation, we must vote to have control of legislatures and congress.
We even have to hold our noses and vote for Chaffee types.
I don't like it, but this is my prediction:
Lose:
Chafee
Santorum
Dewine
Allen
Gain:
Steele
Net loss: 3 seats
I think Talent will have a tough time as well. We might be -4. I know these numbers suck, but we will have to wait and see.
DemocraticUnderground.com... they have a thread going based on his bullsh*t predictions.
I also find it hard to believe Allen will lose.
The problem with Virginia is that Webb is running as a moderate (even though we know the truth). Northern Virginia has become more blue than in the past. And, they are not selling the marriage amendment as they did in 2004 which is the biggest problem of all.
I'm predicting (praying?) Talent hangs on.
Missouri is notoriously hard to figure. But their win over Ashcroft came with the huge emotional wave from Carnahan's tragic death. There is no comparable wave of emotion this year to tilt independents. And McCaskill has made a lot of mistakes. I just think they'll go with Talent if they're undecided.
Wait a minute!
Just read this prognostication
http://www.americanprowler.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=10585
Quin Hillyer used to report for my local paper. I really, really respect his political instincts. If he says the GOP hangs onto both houses....well, like I said, egg on my face might feel pretty good!
I believe the GOP get out the vote effort is at an all time high in Missouri. So I think Talent will win. As will Allen, Corker, Burns, Steele, Chaffee. No less than 54 Senate seats with a shot at 56. Kean still has a shot as does Dewine in Ohio. God bless Santorum.
I think the past week has been great for the GOP. The Kerry remarks, the Saddam verdict, the unemployment numbers. So I think they'll keep the House as well. Barron's had them at 224 a couple of weeks ago, Melhman said they'd lose 8 to 10 seats. Unless you're a complete kool-aid drinker, you've got to see that momentum is clearly on the side of the GOP. So the House numbers should be a little better than 224.
I think political pollsters are as foolish as those who predict the weather. In 2005, after Katerina, the weather folks predicted that 2006 would be worse than 2005 for hurricanes. They were dead wrong.
The pollsters told us on election day 2004 that Kerry had it all sewn up. They were dead wrong.
The idea that we can predict the behavior of millions based on a poll of hundreds is foolish.
VOTE REPUBLICAN ON NOVEMBER 7TH!
"I don't understand how people can think that the Haggard or Foley thing is going to make me, or any other Christian, Republican, Family Values Voter, etc., turn around and vote for the Democrat in virtually any race, let alone not vote."
I believe Foley's seat will be held by Negron. I also believe that Katherine Harris has a good chance of coming out ahead of Nelson. At least I hope that is the case. Katherine has had next to no support from the Republican Party as it was believed that she didn't have a chance against Nelson. I hope all Republican voters in Florida will vote for Katherine Harris, a real conservative!
I think Bush is scheduled to campaign for Harris in Pensacola this morning. The GOP guv candidate (Crist?) is whiffing the visit even though the entire event was planned for his benefit (not Harris's). What a stupid move.
Bush-avoidance has been a major miscalculation by so many Republican candidates this cycle. Voters may disagree with Bush on many things, but they DO NOT admire a guy who ditches his own party in pursuit of electoral advantage.
I have watching a c-span a bunch because I have pretty much written off FNC as an "occasional watch".
The callers on c-span's republican line seem to be the usual idiots or seminar callers when they say "I going to vote against the war by voting out republicans."
I am hoping for the MSM to be devastatingly wrong. This is cycle, the MSM has been despicable. The fact Gannet has done a blatent hit piece is screaming that that entity should be punished.
Saturday afternoon I received an automated phone
call from Bill Clinton telling be to be sure
and vote for Erik Fleming, Gene Taylor and Bennie
Thompson. If I had any thoughts of staying home
that took care of it.
I agree about their running away from Bush. It makes some Repubs look like they were on the defensive from the start. I think the GOP should have played up the great economy and run ads touting all the *successful* things they have done during the Bush administration. At least that's my 2 cents. I assume the parties have experts and pay big money to focus groups to see what will really work. Maybe some time they should just listen to us on FR and forget the expensive consultants.
Pennsylvania may be closer than the polls indicate, too -- and the GOP may be dumping money there despite Santorum's slim chances in order to help local candidates.
I hoped we would see an ad at the end that went something like this:
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