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Possibilities of war in the Middle East
GulfNews.com ^ | 11/22/06 | Amir Taheri

Posted on 11/21/2006 5:32:33 PM PST by baseball_fan

/snip/ The struggle for Lebanon has already started in its crucial political phase. The Islamic republic, acting through Hezbollah and its Maronite allies led by ex-General Michel Aoun, is trying to destroy Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government through internal haemorrhage.

The pro-Tehran coalition has already persuaded six ministers to resign from the Siniora cabinet. A seventh had resigned a few months ago, although his departure has not been officially approved. All that is needed is for one or two more ministers to quit for Siniora's cabinet to lose its quorum and thus be forced to step down. Such a development would suddenly transform Emile Lahoud, the incumbent president, backed by Iran and Syria, into the real power in Beirut insofar as he would have the right to name a new prime minister.

The pro-Iranian camp's position would be further strengthened by the fact that Hezbollah remains the strongest military force in Lebanon and thus capable of keeping the regular army out of the struggle for power.

The likeliest scenario, however, looks different. Rather than watch with folded arms as Iran and Syria annex Lebanon, Israel would feel obliged to take action. It is clear that Syria would be the immediate target of such action. /snip/

(Excerpt) Read more at gulfnews.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:
is this the "likeliest scenario" as the author says? is it one reason we want to talk to Syria first? what would winning look like?
1 posted on 11/21/2006 5:32:34 PM PST by baseball_fan
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To: baseball_fan

barbari sunt, barbarice egit.


2 posted on 11/21/2006 5:39:14 PM PST by GSlob
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To: baseball_fan
that Hezbollah remains the strongest military force in Lebanon and thus capable of keeping the regular army out of the struggle for power.

Thanks go to to the French and the rest of the surrender monkey blue helmeted eunuchs of the [READ: worthless] U.N. for this situation.

3 posted on 11/21/2006 5:46:00 PM PST by afnamvet (It is what it is.)
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To: baseball_fan



Possibilities of war in the Middle East

and that which is going on now??????

this is called what?


peace?


4 posted on 11/21/2006 5:47:59 PM PST by WhiteGuy (GO BUCKS 12-0)
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To: baseball_fan

Bombs away on Damascus!


5 posted on 11/21/2006 6:00:50 PM PST by Doctor Don
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To: baseball_fan

A coup d'etat, indeed.....


6 posted on 11/21/2006 6:10:25 PM PST by The Drowning Witch (Non omnes qui habemt citharam sunt citharoedi)
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To: baseball_fan

Syria has been a thorn in the side for way too long.


7 posted on 11/21/2006 6:12:18 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse (Unite)
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To: baseball_fan
Nuclear exchange. Between Israel and Iran. Probably before the end of the decade. Unless the world gets the guts to stop Iran from developing and using nukes.
8 posted on 11/21/2006 6:15:28 PM PST by Question_Assumptions
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To: baseball_fan
Possibilities of war in the Middle East

Syria has been a thorn in the side for long enough; sometimes you have to forget nation building' after conquest'........with some countries, chopping down every thing green and salting the earth is much, much less expensive.

9 posted on 11/21/2006 6:16:08 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse (Unite)
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To: baseball_fan

Since when hasn't there been war in the Mid East? Seriously?


10 posted on 11/21/2006 6:25:14 PM PST by Porterville (I'm afraid the forces that want war are more than the forces who don't)
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To: baseball_fan
With the UN investigation on the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri complete, Syria faces a Hobson's choice. If Bashar Al Assad cooperates with the UN, he would not only weaken his regime but might also face personal legal complications to say the least. On the other hand, if he decides to defy the UN on that issue as well, he would make it impossible for people such as Djerdjian and Kimche to sing their songs in his favour.

Assad is expendable; in fact, a pattern of coup d'etat in the area need not be limited to Lebanon at all but might easily start in Damascus. What is holding that back is the prospect of a majority Sunni government taking his place incorporating members of the now-banned Muslim Brotherhood. An accommodation between them and the Iranians might mean Assad's days are numbered. That and a simultaneous overthrow of the Lebanese government might well mean a Lebanese civil war ended by another Syrian occupation, this time supported heavily by Iran.

That would face the Israelis with not one but two overtly hostile countries to the north. It would also be a tremendous stride forward for Shi'ite control of radical Islam. Iranian nuclear weapons based in their home country are yet incapable of reliable accuracy on Israel. From Syria or even the Bekaa valley the problem would be considerably easier.

11 posted on 11/21/2006 6:33:14 PM PST by Billthedrill
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To: baseball_fan

War with Syria and Iran is inevitable - it's just a question of timing and readiness. The question is when, not if.


12 posted on 11/21/2006 6:35:34 PM PST by reagan_fanatic (Stop global warming - tell a liberal to shut up)
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To: baseball_fan

Why are the Maronites siding with Hezbollah???


13 posted on 11/21/2006 8:36:08 PM PST by arthurus (Better to fight them over THERE than over HERE)
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To: Question_Assumptions; reagan_fanatic; Billthedrill
"...the world gets the guts to stop Iran from developing and using nukes..."

Sometime between Jan 2, 2007 and Jan 20, 2007. Stay well armed and safe..............FRegards

14 posted on 11/21/2006 9:08:02 PM PST by gonzo (I'm not confused anymore. Now I'm sure we have to completely destroy Islam, and FAST!!)
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To: arthurus

"Why are the Maronites siding with Hezbollah???"

excellent question, haven't come across an answer


15 posted on 11/22/2006 6:39:03 AM PST by baseball_fan
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