Your analysis is very pragmatic and probably accurate. It's going to come down to either McCain or Giuliani. The media will bust their humps to get McCain the nomination, but if he gets it they'll turn on him in a heartbeat and savage him right up to the election against either Hillary or Hussein Obama. Unfortunately, I just don't see any of the other 'Pub candidates having much of a chance. Romney might crack 40% in the general election against Hillary, maybe 35% against Obama, so it's 1964 all over again. The others? Brownback loses maybe 35-65 against the top two 'Rats. Duncan Hunter? Maybe 30%. Gingrich? The media will dig up so many skeletons from his past that he'd be forced to relinquish the nomination, if he ever got it. I just don't think we have the horses in '08 to make a race of it against either Hillary or Obamalama outside of Giuliani/McCain. I know many here will hate to hear that and want to flame me for saying it, but I'm only offering a preliminary sizing up, and, to be honest, those choices don't make me all that happy either. But faced with the prospect of a Hillary or Obama presidency, I question whether staying home is a good idea, either.
thanks, i largely agree.
I think you oversell how bad we could lose though. Even Bob Dole got 41% against Clinton Saying that a Romney or Brownback would lose 65-35 is a bit much. I'd say more along the lines of 55-45 max, probably a little narrower.
Don't forget, though, it's still all about the electoral map.
We currently hold 286. What states could flip in 2008? I don't really see a Romney or a Brownback flipping any for us. They could hold what we have, but I can't see them adding.
There have been polls and articles showing that Rudy and McCain at least havea chance in states like NJ, NY, PA, RI, MI, WI.
What states could the dems flip. They have way more opportunities in places like CO, MO, OH, VA.
The wild card is CA. I see an outside shot that Arnold's popularity and support could deliver CA to a Rudy or McCain and that would seal the deal for us.
Basically, though, prospects are not good. The Iraq War has virtually ended Bush's Presidency and the Public has tuned out and given up, by and large. If Iraq continues to go south, it won't matter who we run.
That said, given the current circumstances, Rudy and McCain are our two best shots at the moment. Things can change. I just hope that if it comes down to one of them against Hillary, the base types don't decide to prove their point and stay home.
We should picture a pants-suited Hillary giving the SOTU tonight with Pelosi and Obama behind her, Slick taking in the adulation, 3 new liberal SC Justices having replaced Stevens, Scalia and Ginsburg...
Anything is preferable to that nightmare scenario. Even a Pres. McCain. Look at this way, what are the odds he serves out his term? If he picks a solid conservative VP, we could get 2 for the price of 1.