Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Only the Strong Will Survive this Big Bang
The Hill ^ | February 28, 2007 | Dick Morris

Posted on 02/28/2007 9:38:42 AM PST by centurion316

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-49 next last
To: centurion316
In effect, we will now have a national primary and the presidential nominating season will last only three weeks from start to finish.

The effect of this gigantic sea change will be that whoever is the frontrunner in each party by the fall of 2007 will be virtually certain to win the nomination because only the frontrunner can possibly hope to amass enough money to compete in half the country at once. Nobody but the likely winner in each party will be able to compete at that level on Feb. 5.

Money will now be king. Nothing else will count very much. If you can afford to run a national campaign three weeks after the first caucus, you will win. If you can’t, you’re doomed. And the polling that designates a frontrunner now will do much to determine the nominee.

Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding!!!!!! Morris could not be more right on this. Dems are pushing this idea to limit our ability to really check out the candidates during the "beauty contest". As he notes, only those who already have a large campaign war chest have any real hope of making it through this manipulated "super Tuesday".

In essence, they want people to go to the primaries as ignorant about the candidates as possible. The whole thing also limits Hillary's exposure and ensures that she won't face any tough questions or fumbles while on the campaign trail.

If your state Lege is considering doing this, they need to hear from you NOW!!!!

21 posted on 02/28/2007 10:34:28 AM PST by DustyMoment (FloriDUH - proud inventors of pregnant/hanging chads and judicide!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LonePalm
The also ensure that the cream rises to the top slowly and is not boiled away in a flash of steam.

What-uh-you, sime kind uh French chef?

22 posted on 02/28/2007 10:36:18 AM PST by frithguild (The Freepers moved as a group, like a school of sharks sweeping toward an unaware and unarmed victim)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: centurion316; LonePalm
We are going to get the nominees that the early polls and the press deliver up to us. Frightening, since almost none of the American people are paying any attention to this and won't until its all over.

This an the inherent flaw in a primary system. And the point LonePalm makes about an early primary winner subsequently self-destructing is another.

Of course, it was not always this way. The primary system we have now was, in essence, a result of the 1968 Democratic Convention where the anti Viet Nam War crowd asserted that they were frozen out of the nominating process. After the '68 election was over they got their way, the Dims nominated McGovern the next time around, and these activists became known as McGovernites.

For a long time afterward the Dims were dominated by their activist loony fringe, and they began a long period of well-deserved political exile. The problem with activist loony fringes is that they have little if anything in common with the mainstream American voter, and the mainstream voter tends to be put off by the loony fringes. Their interests are simply not in sync with one another.

My points here are that the system we have now does not have its roots in anything that we should regard as sacrosanct; that there are a number of inherent flaws in the system we have now and how it operates; and that it was not always done in this fashion.

I may be the only person here who would favor a return to the nominating conventions of old, but they did offer a number of advantages over the current system. The actual campaign did not begin before many voters were engaged in the process. The impact of activist loony fringes in candidate selection was reduced to something approaching their actual numbers. It cost a heck of a lot less money. The impact of the media was reduced. Adults made the ultimate decisions on candidate selection, generally based upon some form of political pragmatism as opposed to the ideologies of the loony fringes.

Sooner or later, our current process will collapse under its own weight. And when it does, what then? My hope is that the nominating convention of old returns in some form or another, is brought up to date, and once again the adults run the process.

23 posted on 02/28/2007 10:36:36 AM PST by surely_you_jest
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: surely_you_jest

First line should read "This IS an inherent flaw . . . "

Sheesh.


24 posted on 02/28/2007 10:39:02 AM PST by surely_you_jest
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: surely_you_jest; LonePalm

A national primary elevates the role of the 527's. Effectively, this has had more of an influence on the left than the right, whose fundraising comes from a larger number of smaller sources. So Soros, et als. will nominate the Deomcrat candidate. This is why right now you are seeing a rush to the left by Dim candidates. This is good news for us in the general election.


25 posted on 02/28/2007 10:47:30 AM PST by frithguild (The Freepers moved as a group, like a school of sharks sweeping toward an unaware and unarmed victim)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: BarbaraS.
How late could someone enter the presidential race as an independent?

There are several third parties that might be ideal vehicles for a third party run. The trick is to get nominated by a party that already has ballot access. H.Ross Perot founded the Reform party and spent a lot of time and money getting the on the ballot. Subsequent "reformers" have grabbed onto that 'entitlement' and used to to their advantage. The Greens and Libertarians are the other two parties that have some ballot access. I think the Libertarians is the best. This might be the best year for the L's to nominate someone who is a billionaire and give it a shot.

?

26 posted on 02/28/2007 10:47:52 AM PST by Jack Black
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: frithguild
This is why right now you are seeing a rush to the left by Dim candidates. This is good news for us in the general election.If by "US" you mean super-partisan Republicans then yes, it is. If, on the other hand, by US you mean Americans who want the best for the nation then no, it is not.

My desire is that both parties nominate reasonable people to their slates, so that whoever is elected the Nation prospers and survives.

The Dems are probably the favorites to win in 2008 - so we should all want a process that helps them select the best, most reasonable, from among the Donkey candidates.

To have the stars align in such a way that: A) Soros' plays kingmaker even more than last time and B) the Dems are virtually assured of a win means Soros is picking our next Pres.

I am sure that is NOT a GOOD THING for "us".

27 posted on 02/28/2007 10:51:39 AM PST by Jack Black
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: surely_you_jest
I may be the only person here who would favor a return to the nominating conventions of old

You're not. I was actually beginning to think that I was the only one that favored this. There's something to be said for that process.

28 posted on 02/28/2007 10:52:33 AM PST by Publius Valerius
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: stuartcr
I think money always has been the king...

"There's NO money in politics! We removed it! See? SEE???"


29 posted on 02/28/2007 10:55:08 AM PST by COBOL2Java ("No stronger retrograde force exists in the world" - Winston Churchill on Islam)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: centurion316
Texas is also in the process of moving the election to Feb 5th 2008 as well
30 posted on 02/28/2007 10:59:01 AM PST by VRWCTexan (History has a long memory - but still repeats itself)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Black
I think one of the primary hurdles to third parties is not lack of ballot access (though that is obviously a hurdle) but lack of ability to get into the Presidential debates. In order to qualify, a candidate has to poll at 15%, which is tough to do without, as you noted, spending gobs of money.

There's a reason it is the BI-partisan commission on Presidential debates and not the NON-partisan commission on Presidential debates....
31 posted on 02/28/2007 10:59:59 AM PST by Publius Valerius
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

Theoretically the Republican Party is controlled by it's members. FR has a huge number of Republican Party members on it. While we don't agree on candidates or issues always if we did agree that we don't want a BIG BANG primary in 2008 could we change OUR PARTIES rules to ensure we don't have one.

I take it as a given that the Republican Party has ultimate control of the methods used to nominate candidates for the Republican Nomination. It is only a long dance-with-the-devil that has led us to turn this control over to state elections boards.

If the state elections boards (many controlled by Democratic legislatures who are not at all adverse to screwing up Republicans in any way they can) are not serving us well than should not WE, THE ACTUAL MEMBERS OF THE GOP, DEMAND THAT THE RNC FIX THE PROCESS so that it gives all candidates access to voters and NOT COOPERATE in the weird BIG BANG that we are being led into.

The RNC could dictate to state parties that only delegates selected in caucusus will be seated. They could dictate dates and suggest that only candidates selected after certain dates will be seated. They could sit down with all the state party chairs and create a 'round robin' system where states alternate dates, based on an initial lottery pick so that over a four election cycle each state has chance to participate at both the front end and back end of the process (say spreading the dates out over eight weeks, two each per month of FEB, MARCH, APRIL and MAY.

They could dictate the state parties that states not meeting these requirements are penalized or have their delegates aportioned by the state party.

I'm not sure what the perfect solution is but I'm pretty sure the California Legislature, which is run 100% be Donkeys, should not be the body deciding when the California Republican Primary is held.

Thoughts? Comments?

32 posted on 02/28/2007 11:01:31 AM PST by Jack Black
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: voltaires_zit
The 2 party "system" in the US has been a nightmarishly disfunctional noose around the neck of the polity for too long, anyway.

Please show me a superior system?
33 posted on 02/28/2007 11:02:10 AM PST by Kozak (Anti Shahada: " There is no God named Allah, and Muhammed is his False Prophet")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: aegiscg47
This will really be heresy but I think were far better off in the past with the smoke filled back rooms at the convention deciding the party nominee.
34 posted on 02/28/2007 11:04:07 AM PST by Kozak (Anti Shahada: " There is no God named Allah, and Muhammed is his False Prophet")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Kozak

> Please show me a superior system?

I suspect before too long you'll see one, maybe even including, dare I say it, proportional representation.


35 posted on 02/28/2007 11:08:51 AM PST by voltaires_zit
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: voltaires_zit

Oh. You mean those models of efficiency and stability like say the Italian Parliament? Enlighten me oh wise one.


36 posted on 02/28/2007 11:11:05 AM PST by Kozak (Anti Shahada: " There is no God named Allah, and Muhammed is his False Prophet")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: centurion316

I think this is a move by both parties to eliminate the influence of the "little guy" from the process of nomination for President. This has been going on for some time since Regan ran. Elements of the RNC did not want to allow another Regan to emerge to win the nomination. So they at first just moved in the primary dates here and there. Now, this move is to guarantee that only the well financed and backed will have a chance. It is all about leaving true conservatives out. This is an attempt to limit our choices. Period.


37 posted on 02/28/2007 11:13:50 AM PST by TruthConquers (Delenda est publius schola)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kozak
You and a previous poster seem to think that's gone. I don't believe it is, fundamentally. While the last five conventions have been show-and-tells that is only because a clear front runner emerged and had clearly all the votes needed to win at the convention.

There is nothing inherently preventing a brokered convention happening. It happened in 1968 because the Dem party was split over the war, and one of the leading vote getters from the primaries (Robert Kennedy) was assassinated. No one had enough votes to win the nomination outright, so it was "brokered". That means the delegates got to vote. The "McGovernite Changes" moved more of the delegates to being appointed by primary election and fewer by other mechanisms. But the Democratic party still has a large number (20%?) of "super-delegates". Super-delegates get their seat based on some other mechanism than being a proxy for a candidate. For instance, I believe all Democratic Congress Critters are automatic delegates. Ditto Governors. The "McGovernite Changes" sighted above did not happen to the GOP. It was never capture by McGovern, nor is there some super-party body or law that sets these rules. The GOP makes it's own rules!! If we allow a bunch of idiot state legislators to come up with a terrible plan for nominating our candidate IT"S OUR OWN DAMN FAULT.

38 posted on 02/28/2007 11:14:21 AM PST by Jack Black
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: Jack Black
If by "US" you mean super-partisan Republicans then yes, it is. If, on the other hand, by US you mean Americans who want the best for the nation then no, it is not.

The "us" I had in mind was conservatives. But as I read it again it applies to "us" as a nation as well.

The Democtat party as a whole has become untrustworthy on matters of national security, without those who think like Joe Lieberman in the mainstream. Chalk it up to what you will. To me it is the unintended consequence of McCain Feingold.

39 posted on 02/28/2007 11:18:52 AM PST by frithguild (The Freepers moved as a group, like a school of sharks sweeping toward an unaware and unarmed victim)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: Kozak

Certainly it has been implemented badly.

Then again, there's no doubt that our current system is implemented badly.

So badly that fully half the electorate in any given year is so convinced their voice isn't meaningful that they don't bother to clap for either the tweedle-dee or the tweedle-dum offered to them by the major parties.


40 posted on 02/28/2007 11:29:01 AM PST by voltaires_zit
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-49 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson