another possible strategy is Thompson flipping Wisconsin (10 EVs), which Bush only lost by 11,000 votes. Ohio is 20 EVs. So if we swap OH/WI, that’s a net of -10 for Thompson. Bush got 286 EVs in 2004, so that moves Thompson’s # to 276 EVs. NM with Richardson as VP is a sure loss, that’s another -5 EVs. That leaves 271 EVs for Thompson, so everything else must be held.
this is the analytical analysis I try to have on some of these Thompson threads, but the focus always turns to abortion so the discussion fritters away.
Torie, what do you think about the chances in the above states with Thompson, to make the EV number?
One would have to get a better feel as to how Fred connects with the marginal Midwest, to make a judgment. I suspect Fred will have difficultly breaking out of the Bush states, and might well drop Ohio and Iowa along with maybe Nevada and New Mexico, with no offset. But this is all wild speculation. Either the guy will connect, or he won’t. And if Edwards gets the nomination, then the map gets really messy.
I should have qualified my first post...a lot depends on Iraq. If there is significant progress and the economy holds, the political landscape will be entirely different than it appears today. Absent that, it’s hard to imagine picking up Wisconsin or holding Iowa for that matter. I guess there is the Hillary polarization factor that could enter into these calculations. Yet I suspect that would be offset by continued troubles in Iraq (in the so called battle ground states).