About 13% if GOP voters are very hostile to Rudy when informed of his views, as to the primary. Rudy will get about 85%-90% of the GOP vote in the General Election, if he gets the nomination, a bit less than Bush. The CW is that he will more than offset that, with some voters who voted for Kerry. Rudy viability will be more about whether he can continue to hold the “beyond Bush” voters, while trying to appeal to GOP voters in the primary, and of course events, and his presentation. It will be much less about the size of the erosion of the GOP “base.” JMO.
Make that 18% as totally hostile in a primary; that was a typo. I stand by my other numbers however.