Pakistani Military To End Musharraf’s Rule?
Analysts have begun warning that Pervez Musharraf may not remain in power much longer, and that the American effort against Islamist terror groups may suffer as a result. The Pakistani strongman looks decidedly less strong at this point, and some question whether the Pakistani Army remains loyal at the moment, let alone in the future:
“As a political crisis boils in Pakistan, American analysts both inside and outside the government are expressing new doubts that President Musharraf will be able to hold onto power through the summer.
Over the past month, the military regime in Islamabad has faced a rising threat of violent jihadis in its capital, as well as the struggle between the president and the suspended chief justice of the country, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. The twin challenges have led some analysts in the American intelligence community to begin questioning whether Pakistan’s military, traditionally General Musharraf’s most reliable ally, will support the current regime for much longer.
A Musharraf exit could deal a stinging blow to America in the war on terrorism. President Bush has lavished the Pakistani leader with arms sales and low-interest loans while keeping mum on his spotty human rights record. The logic has been that the former general, who himself came to power in a 1999 military coup, had dismantled his pre-September 11, 2001, policy of supporting the Taliban and would be the best possible option for American interests in Pakistan.
But the strongman’s grip on power appears to be loosening, with a number of analysts citing as evidence last month’s showdown inside Islamabad’s Red Mosque, also known as Lal Masjid. On May 22, thousands of Pakistani police amassed on the outskirts of the mosque after a pro-Taliban group took four police officers hostage inside.
The hostage crisis was eventually resolved, but only after General Musharraf tried and failed to launch a military strike on the building.”
Word has it that Musharraf’s orders got countermanded by Army brass, which did not want to conduct the operation at all. They’ve made it clear that they do not want to fight the border tribes of Waziristan in the efforts to defeat the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The refusal to engage at Lal Masjid — if it was that — sends a big message to Musharraf: Get out.
That will be a problem for the US. Pakistan has a natural affiliation with al-Qaeda and the Taliban. The nation was founded by Muslim separatists and has usually had sympathies for like-minded groups. Musharraf himself allied with Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar before the 9/11 attacks, a very popular position in Pakistan, and only moved away from that alliance under threat of American attack.
A return to that policy under new leadership would be disastrous to the war effort. In the first place, it would leave the Taliban and AQ as a permanent threat to Afghanistan. Much more worrisome, however, is that it leaves at least a theoretical path for terrorists to get nuclear weapons for their efforts. A sympathetic military regime may not have qualms about helping Omar off the floor by giving him weapons that have no real defense, especially if they felt they could hide the provenance of the nukes.
Link:http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/010215.php
” Much more worrisome, however, is that it leaves at least a theoretical path for terrorists to get nuclear weapons for their efforts. “
Wonder why the captain waited until the last paragraph to make this (inappropriately) understated point??
The implications of a nuclear-armed, islamist state are, conservatively, staggering.......