I wasn’t talking about the “preference” part of the polls, I’m talking about McCain’s favorable rating plummeting, and the public perception of him as “conservative” shooting up, both of these among “likely primary republican voters” who would be “expected” to already know whether they liked McCain or not, and would already have “firm” opinions on whether he was liberal or conservative.
There would be little reason for Fred Thompson to change people’s views of McCain as conservative, or to make McCain less liked.
If McCain can have 10 points shaved off his favorable in a week, you don’t think Rudy can have the same thing happen to him?
And if Rudy’s the pick simply because he’s in front and well-liked, what happens when he’s no longer “well-liked”?
“And if Rudy’s the pick simply because he’s in front and well-liked, what happens when he’s no longer “well-liked”?”
The two questions you raise above are generalities that can apply to any candidate or front-runner. I don’t see the point of hypothesizing on what “ifs”. It doesn't lead anywhere or resolve anything.