the melt value is immaterial. What is material is the value established by other recoveries like the Republic or the Atocha. Collectors pay a premium over numismatic value.
It is a shell game. Collectors are aging and not being sufficiently replaced to make up for the demographic shift. The marketeers can only fleece so much stupid money at a time before people with money catch on to the game. The melt value is the bottom line. The rest is hype when there is that much available. Of course there is some stupid money to be had, so they will actualize above melt value. The smart money knows not to buy these coins at the large markups. They will come down in price as they flood the market.