BBC: Thousands flee Oman storm threat [strongest to hit the Arabian Peninsula since 1945]

BBC ^ | Tuesday, 5 June 2007, 11:57 GMT 12:57 UK | BBC Staff

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thousands flee Oman storm threat

Muscat residents evacuated as storm clouds gathered

An unusually powerful cyclone has begun battering the coast of Oman with winds of 160mph (260 km/h) and large waves.

The centre of Tropical Cyclone Gonu is heading north-west through the Indian Ocean towards Oman's east coast.

Thousands of residents of coastal regions and the low-lying offshore island of Masirah have been evacuated.

People elsewhere have been told to stay indoors, while schools and public building have been emptied to make room for the evacuees.

The most powerful part of the storm was expected to hit Oman on Thursday, before moving north across the Gulf to Iran.

"It is expected to increase in the coming few hours accompanied by thunderstorms and heavy rainfalls as the cyclone crosses the sultanate," the official news agency of the wealthy oil-exporter said, quoting police.

Reports say Cyclone Gonu is expected to be the strongest to hit the Arabian Peninsula since records started in 1945.

While crossing the Indian Ocean on Monday it reached the equivalent of a Category Five hurricane - the highest category available.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Navy.mil~~~May 31~~~
Ships and Submarines
Deployable Battle Force Ships: 276

Ships Underway (away from homeport): 144 ships (52% of total)

On deployment: 101 ships (37% of total)

Attack submarines underway (away from homeport): 24 submarines (44%)

On deployment: 17 submarines (31%)
Ships Underway

Carriers:
USS Kitty Hawk (CV 63) - Pacific Ocean
USS Enterprise (CVN 65) - Atlantic Ocean
USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) - Arabian Gulf

Boxer Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG):
USS Boxer (LHD 4) - Pacific Ocean
USS Bohomme Richard (LHD 6) - Persian Gulf

Bataan Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG):
USS Kearsarge (LHD 3) - Atlantic Ocean
USS Bataan (LHD 5) - Red Sea

Amphibious Warfare Ships:
USS Tarawa (LHA 1) - Pacific Ocean
USS Peleliu (LHA 5) - Pacific Ocean
USS Wasp (LHD 1) - Atlantic Ocean
USS Essex (LHD 2) - Pacific Ocean

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

One of those storm tracks could take it right into the Gulf....that could be bad news.....

That is a nasty storm....

[stevie_d_64]

That will change...

The gomers running the pumps will just go ahead and raise the price about .30 cents by tonight...

[rfp1234]

—This is Bush’s Fault.—

It’s Rove’s Hurricane Machine!

[stevie_d_64]

Ahaaaaaaa!!!

Go Bob Go!!!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

fyi

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Regarding Diego Garcia:

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[NYer]

Amazing Tropical Cyclone Gonu

[John Valentine]

“Weren’t people saying that Katrina hit the U.S. because of our evil ways???”

Yes. And some of those people are the ones being hit now.

And just who would that be, j-off, me? I'm here getting ready for this thing to hit and you're given me the sound of one jaw flapping.

Reconect your brain.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

One of those storm tracks could take it right into the Gulf....that could be bad news.....
That is a nasty storm....
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The wind is down from 195mph(yesterday)~~~Hopefully it will take a track rite through iran~~~Looks bigger than Katrina.
Gunna be a mess where ever it hits...

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks.....from your link

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June 4, 2007

<--I can say with confidence that this forecaster has never seen the likes of this:
...a Category 4 (130 knots, or 240 kph) hurricane over the northern Arabian Sea. The wind speeds are estimated (as of 0600 Hours GMT) by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). A look at full-disk infrared imagery (from the India Met. Dept.--IMD) helps to afford better perspective on TC Gonu and South Asia:

There is TC Gonu, unusually powerful and unusually far to the northwest--and it is headed towards the northwest. Thus, the first land in the path of Gonu, as it is now moving, would be easternmost Oman. And this is where the latest JTWC advisory takes Gonu--ashore southeast of Masqat. As far as numerical forecast models, the GFS is still handling Gonu poorly, but the ECMWF, which has been remarkably prescient on this amazing storm, is still taking a powerful low ashore in SE Oman--and even into interior eastern Arabia. I cannot rule out extreme, unusual weather in UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to at least Al Ahsa and the southern/middle Najd (Riyadh).

Hopefully, more on Gonu later today (Monday).

Updated: 6/4/2007 7:02 AM

[KC Burke]

On another Gonu thread I have posted some stuff found at http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2626

Take a look

[toldyou]

Is FEMA handing out checks yet?

LOL!

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

[reagan_fanatic]

Between this and Ahmanutjob ranting like a lunatic, crude should be hitting $100 a barrel soon. Time to trade the car in for a moped.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks....we got to have some of that on the thread:

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Cyclone Gonu Thread 2 (updated at 10:30am EDT)

Posted by Prof. Goose on June 5, 2007 - 10:30am
Topic: Supply/Production

Exclusive--Must credit THE OIL DRUM and Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF.

KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 20-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 10-15 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards.

All tips and resources (*and there are already many down there in the first thread, let's replicate that here today in the second thread! Thank you!*) welcome in the comment thread below. If you have any insights, please email the editors box with the word GONU in the subject.

Last updated at 10:30am EDT.

Here is a link to the first Cyclone Gonu Thread. Please put all new resources and insights here as of 7:30am EDT, but make sure to check out the first thread as well.

Why might Gonu matter? Well, that answer begins with the fact that the world production of petroleum plateauing around 85 mbbl/day, any slight blip in supply or exporting could be quite noticeable on the world markets. A sizeable portion of the world's petroleum exports go through the Gulf of Oman.

Particularly, Oman matters in this because it produces 743,000 bbl/day; Oman is also a net exporter, non-OPEC, whose production peaked earlier in the decade. (Thanks to Mike from Green Car Congress for the link.).

Of course, this storm also has the potential to affect Iran, UAE, India, and/or Pakistan for that matter--mainly because of shipping disruptions, but there could be some real effects on infrastructure and assets depending on track and landfall. There are also refining and other production assets in Southern Iran, especially in Chah Bahar.

(One will note, as you explore the old comment thread that many of these possibilities are explored...there's a lot of material that we are still sorting through on Iran, shipping lanes, storm surge, etc.)

Resources:

The latest from Margie Kieper and Steve Gregory (on Jeff Masters' blog) over at Weather Underground (sorry!):

The Storm surge shown (10-15 ft) will almost certainly hit the Iran coast - even if the storm weakens to a strong CAT 2 late Tuesday (NY time). The Eastern tip of Oman will likely also experience 10-15 foot surge due to the close proximity of the storm track. Further up the Gulf, before reaching the Straits of Hormuz - storm surge heights of 1-4 feet are expected on the Oman side, and 4-possibly 6 feet on the Iranian side near the entrance to the Straits. Significant wave heights will be 20-30 feet, dropping to 15 feet near the Straits.

This is an unprecedented event. NO CYCLONE has ever entered the Gulf of Oman. And there are no custom 'storm surge' models available for that area. This forecast is based on my experience and subjective analysis of the seabed slope and storm surge interaction with the sea floor. Considering the region has never experienced a hurricane, let alone a strong one it is highly unlikely the loading facilities or platforms were constructed to withstand the forces - both wave action and wind force - that they will experience. Significant, damage will occur. How much long term damage, and the volumes associated with it - can not be determined at this time.

And here's the latest projected track:

As for damage assessments, a tip of the hat to Kinetic Analysis Corporation (affiliated with the University of Central Florida). Early estimates of damage and tracking are available here (Scroll down to Gonu). Here's a graphic:

[Marine_Uncle]

Let us hope it tracks into southern Iran. It would be bad if it did take that NW track into the Persian Gulf. Could loss some grounded oil tankers that simply cannot moore in deeper water (main channel area). But I would assume our fleet will be nimble enough to make proper course corrections to keep our ships in the deepest parts of the main channel if worst came along.
Something no one has yet addressed, is how the bottom will look after the storm. A lot of sand could shift about and perhaps knock off a few fantoms in critical channel areas, in the narrower parts of the straight.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Impact Map:

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[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

See map just above......

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Forecasters are talking about this being a bigger storm than Katrina!!!