Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies.
Locked on 08/19/2007 5:43:08 AM PDT by Lead Moderator, reason:

New thread here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1883326/posts?page=1



Skip to comments.

Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data East Caribbean

Buoy Data West Caribbean

Storm Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dean; hurricane; hurricanedean; tropical; tsdean
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 201-220221-240241-260 ... 1,101-1,102 next last
To: CindyDawg

Far West Harris County...burb of Houston, TX


221 posted on 08/17/2007 10:44:00 AM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 218 | View Replies]

To: varina davis

We were wondering about this yesterday. I have no idea what is news anymore and what isn’t. Very confusing. I guess they figure if you need to know, you know where to go.


222 posted on 08/17/2007 10:44:02 AM PDT by CindyDawg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 215 | View Replies]

To: Pebcak

When the valley is in good shape with rainfall...the crops are the best anywhere.


223 posted on 08/17/2007 10:45:37 AM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 220 | View Replies]

To: varina davis

It may be they’re waiting to put it in breaking til it gets closer to the US..


224 posted on 08/17/2007 10:46:06 AM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet -Fred'08)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 215 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse
The bad news is we'll have the Cat 3 designation presently. The good news is pressure is ever-so-slightly up from the previous penetration. The ugly is the eyewall has now been fully replaced.

000
URNT12 KNHC 171740
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 17/17:17:00Z
B. 14 deg 46 min N
  063 deg 16 min W
C. NA  mb 2763 m
D. 110 kt
E. 011 deg 010 nm
F. 107 deg 124 kt
G. 011 deg 011 nm
H.        966  mb
I.   7 C/ 3046 m
J.  19 C/ 3040 m
K.   9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2  nm
P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 28
MAX FL WIND 124 KT N QUAD 17:13:30 Z

225 posted on 08/17/2007 10:47:05 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 205 | View Replies]

To: shield

Nice area. Country living/Houston shopping:’) We just can’t handle heavy rains period. It drains fast but floods first.


226 posted on 08/17/2007 10:47:07 AM PDT by CindyDawg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 221 | View Replies]

To: steveegg

They’re taking their time with the intermediate advisory. This usually means a significant update.


227 posted on 08/17/2007 10:50:26 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 225 | View Replies]

To: varina davis

We have a loooong way to go to get towards this being another Katrina....

That said, model trends continue to go N which brings this into more of a U.S. landfall.

GFDL now has a central LA hit as a Cat 4.


228 posted on 08/17/2007 10:50:54 AM PDT by nwctwx
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 215 | View Replies]

To: CindyDawg
Both Beulah and Allen were flooders, CindyDawg. Beulah because of the weird looping and Allen because of the stall. But there’s are a lot more people and structures here now, and that’s scary.

We’re not getting much off Erin, but when we do the streets are rivers in minutes up here. The clay based soil, from what I’m told doesn't’t allow the water to soak in and down.

I think you’ve nailed it, we can’t even handle a TS now.
Which is why it will probably hit us. Ala Beulah and Allen.

229 posted on 08/17/2007 10:51:38 AM PDT by Pebcak
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 216 | View Replies]

To: nwctwx

...Dean strengthens to a major hurricane with 125 mph winds...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Martinique...Dominica...
and Guadeloupe and its dependencies. The warning will likely be
discontinued later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in
effect for the following islands of the Lesser Antilles...Saba...St.
Eustatius...Montserrat...Antigua...Nevis...St Kitts...Barbuda...St.
Maarten...and Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for St. Lucia.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the South Coast of
the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano to the Haiti/Dominican
Republic border. A Hurricane Watch also remains in effect from Cabo
Beata to the Haiti/Dominican Republic border.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for
Haiti from the Haiti/Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...including
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands...should closely monitor the progress
of Dean.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 145 PM AST...1745z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 14.8 north...longitude 63.6 west or about 175 miles...
280 km...west of Martinique and about 300 miles...480 km...southeast
of San Juan Puerto Rico.

Dean is moving toward the west near 22 mph...35 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue. On this track...Dean will move
across the eastern Caribbean Sea today.

Satellite images and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane
indicate that Dean has strengthened. The maximum sustained winds
are now 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a major
category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185
miles...295 km. Bands of heavy squalls are still affecting portions
of the Lesser Antilles and are approaching Puerto Rico and the U.S.
And British Virgin Islands.
Latest estimated minimum central pressure by a reconnaissance
aircraft was 961 mb...28.38 inches.

Storm total amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected from Dean over
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...with maximum amounts up to
5 inches. Additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are
expected in the Lesser Antilles...with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches in mountainous areas. These rains could cause life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 145 PM AST position...14.8 N...63.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph.
Minimum central pressure...961 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Mainelli


230 posted on 08/17/2007 10:52:00 AM PDT by nwctwx
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 228 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

FNC just reported the first death from Hurricane Dean: a man on St. Lucia. (Sorry - that’s all the information they gave).


231 posted on 08/17/2007 10:52:11 AM PDT by yorkie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: shield

It makes me feel kinda guilty to wish a hurricane off on the poor Mexicans, but since my wishing has no affect one way or the other, I will continue to wish. LOL!


232 posted on 08/17/2007 10:52:49 AM PDT by Ditter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 202 | View Replies]

To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; Amelia; asp1; ..
...Dean strengthens to a major hurricane with 125 mph winds...


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

233 posted on 08/17/2007 10:53:19 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 227 | View Replies]

To: nwctwx

I don’t like that. Isn’t the GDFL usually fairly accurate?


234 posted on 08/17/2007 10:55:57 AM PDT by CajunConservative
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 228 | View Replies]

To: CajunConservative; NautiNurse; dirtboy
the gfdl is generally one of the more accurate models in the tropics, yes. it has been north of most others over recent days though. here's the new run right before landfall:


235 posted on 08/17/2007 10:58:20 AM PDT by nwctwx
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 234 | View Replies]

To: CindyDawg

It’s even getting ridiculous here. I’ve got my eye on an area further west north of 1-10. People have forgotten about this area. Folks are moving westward and skipping this wonder place. Since I want people to continue to forget this place...I’ll not tell. ;o)


236 posted on 08/17/2007 11:01:11 AM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 226 | View Replies]

To: nwctwx

961 mb? I should’ve figured the 966 from that vortex message above was a typo.


237 posted on 08/17/2007 11:02:45 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 230 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

Sounds like trouble’s comin.


238 posted on 08/17/2007 11:04:12 AM PDT by Aquamarine
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 233 | View Replies]

To: nwctwx
NHC sticking with the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.


239 posted on 08/17/2007 11:06:58 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 235 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

Dean still has his boogies shoes on, he seems to be getting faster.


240 posted on 08/17/2007 11:09:32 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping that it will eat him last.”)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 239 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 201-220221-240241-260 ... 1,101-1,102 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson