Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]

NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data East Caribbean

Buoy Data West Caribbean

Storm Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[SouthTexas]

Bouy 42059—29.72, down .04 falling

[Wandaroos]

Thanks for the ping.

[steveegg]

This will be my last VDM post of the night...

491 
URNT12 KNHC 180328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/02:58:10Z
B. 14 deg 53 min N
  065 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2547 m
D. 126 kt
E. 148 deg 007 nm
F. 245 deg 117 kt
G. 141 deg 005 nm
H.        935  mb
I.  11 C/ 3049 m
J.  20 C/ 3028 m
K.  10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 /  2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 17
MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z
MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 129KT @ 03:00:50Z

Motion over the last 1:43 was 274 degrees (just north of west) at approximately 17 mph. Pressure down slightly (2 mb) to 935 mb. This was a SE-to-NW run so the 138-knot flight-level wind in the northeast quadrant holds for now.

[SouthTexas]

Bouy 42059 wave height:

[AGreatPer]

Watching the Global Warming Channel and they are almost having an orgasm.

Their ratings must skyrocket with this stuff. Even my local pub turned it on after baseball and football.

[lonestar]

Anyone remember Katrina’s impact on the nation?

Do you buy gasoline?

[steveegg]

You're pretty close. The top estimated surface-level wind on that particular inbound run (D at relative-to-eyewall position E) is a bit more precise with this particular plane because of some advanced equipment not on most of the others.

Usually, you'll want to concentrate on the MAX FL wind at the bottom.

[SouthTexas]

I imagine they must be delirious. Two storms hitting Texas right after Karl Rove retired.

Someone needs to take control of the weather machine thingy!

[numberonepal]

Conditions at 42059 as of
0250 GMT on 08/18/2007:

	Wind Direction (WDIR):	NNE ( 20 deg true )
	Wind Speed (WSPD):	29.1 kts
	Wind Gust (GST):	35.0 kts
	Wave Height (WVHT):	17.1 ft
	Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	13 sec
	Average Period (APD):	7.6 sec
	Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.72 in
	Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	-0.04 in ( Falling )
	Air Temperature (ATMP):	79.3 °F
	Water Temperature (WTMP):	83.8 °F
	Dew Point (DEWP):	75.4 °F
	Heat Index (HEAT):	83.7 °F
	Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[steveegg]

I’ve got 42059 gone by midnight CDT.

[tcrlaf]

Airline Cancellations From SJU starting:

2 St. Lucia, 1 Bridgetown trip canceled, all Eagle ATR’s...

[alancarp]

Exactly why I gave the disclaimer! But maybe you can enlighten me here: That ‘flight level’ wind figure at the bottom — are we talking a few thousand feet up? Or is that the closest thing we have to a ground-level number?

[numberonepal]

I’ve got 42059 gone by midnight CDT.

Maybe, but 42039 (Pensacola) captured data on the 30 ft waves before it was lost to Ivan.

[Tall_Texan]

The key is hitting the Yucatan. You’ll notice the one track that hits Texas avoids land altogether until it reaches Corpus Christi. All the others slam into the Yucutan which is bound to sap some of its energy but may also cause a serious course correction. Hurricanes are like spinning tops and once they bump into something they’ll bounce. Which direction it bounces in will determine where it moves on from there.

The other key is frontal systems and pressure ridges. I don’t think there is one forecast for Texas/Mexico next week so there shouldn’t be anything to impede it’s westward movement other than the Yucutan. That’s the key.

[SouthTexas]

I think it will go past midnight, but won't see daybreak.

Wonder if it will "log off"? :)

[BurbankKarl]

probably because a dufus admin put it there

[Rte66]

Put me down for 0300 AST.

[AGreatPer]

I hope the people renting my time share in Cancun know to try and get out of there.

[steveegg]

Exactly why I gave the disclaimer! But maybe you can enlighten me here: That ‘flight level’ wind figure at the bottom — are we talking a few thousand feet up? Or is that the closest thing we have to a ground-level number?

That's a direct measurement at (usually) whatever the aircraft is at flying the 700 mb flight level (sometimes 850 mb). That's about 10,000 feet up in a major hurricane, and IIRC, the usual conversion to sea-level winds is 90%.

Of course, it's been close to a year since I had to try to remember this, so some help please.

[steveegg]

I doubt it will see the “You have successfully logged off the NOAA buoy reporting network.” screen.