[Red Badger]

...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

This is from the discussion at NHC. Earlier discussions said that this model has been very accurate in the past......They don't know why it's going against the pattern.......

[Rte66]

Well, *some* of the mets have a theory that ‘canes tend to want to go *towards* bodies of land on their east and *away* from bodies of land on their west. Has to do with the axis of the quadrants not being symmetrical.

That’s why some think Dean will brush Jamaica to the north, instead of head-on and some think he will go up the Yucatan Channel and avoid the peninsula to his west.

Overall, ‘canes want to go north to the pole, anyway, if left to their own devices.