Federal prisons make them do over 85% of their time.
So, whatever time Vick does get, he will serve most of it.
I think he may get 3 years.
Most of the Legal Beagles that ESPN has been trotting out are suggesting as little as 18 months of actual prison time. 2 years is the figure most often cited.
Vick will still be shy of his 30th birthday. Enough time will have passed that emotions will have cooled over what he did. It's up to the commissioner to decide whether he gets reinstated or has the possibility of re-instatement when he gets out.
Again, it's the gambling charge that will probably end-up being the most significant where Vick's future career is concerned.