Hurricane Felix (Update: Category 5 Hurricane )

NWS/NHC ^ | September 1, 2007 | NWS/NHC

[txhurl]

Guidance shifted a little N... I keep losing all my Hebert box links, do you know one?

[txhurl]

[txhurl]

Found it

This image shows the two Hebert boxes. If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida.

If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties. The following is a list showing Hurricanes that passed through these Boxes,starting with Box #1.

[steveegg]

When's the next plane due in? Shortly after the first pass, that's when we'll have Hurricat Felix.

Now only if he would make that hard left.

[deport]

This may be the next event we are dealing with in the Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

[steveegg]

Here comes the pain train.

[deport]

Here comes the pain train.

---

Yep.... Sept begins the season for the Gulf to be alive.....

[steveegg]

The NOAA version of the Hunters are on the scene...

000
URNT12 KWBC 012139
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 1/2125Z
B. 12 DEG 28 MIN N
   65 DEG 23 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 043 DEG  57 KT
G. 300 DEG  18 NM
H. 996 MB
I. 13 C/2456 M
J. 14 C/2420 M
K. 14 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0506A FELIX OB 05
   MAX FL WIND 57 KT NW QUAD 2119Z
   EYE WALL APPEARS TO BE FORMING SW - SE SIDE

Motion over the past 4:18 - 271 degrees at 18.1 mph.

[janetjanet998]

12.5N a tad south of the 12.7 estimate at 5pm

[TypeZoNegative]

I doubt we’d ever get to Pablo, or even Lorenzo seeing how mild this season is.

[steveegg]

Noted. 'Tis why I don't use those 2/5/8/11 estimates in determining motion unless I have to.

Wish I knew what altitude they tried to fly.

[steveegg]

Got what they were flying on an update; the 700-mb level.

[janetjanet998]

just found a pressure of 993 and 75kts at flight evel

66kts at the surface

THAT WOULD MAKE THIS A HURRICANE

[steveegg]

So I’m 3 hours off. They’ll wait until the 8 pm intermediate to declare it as such seeing we’re an hour out.

[floriduh voter]

Lotsa Felix’s out there. Is that your autograph from him?

[floriduh voter]

fabulous colors in that Felix graphic.

[floriduh voter]

Florida isn’t in the present cone of uncertainty. However, NOVA is showing a documentary of 2004. I got scared all over again. Charlie, Ivan, Jeanne and then I ran upstairs and quit watching.

[steveegg]

Once again, the NOAA planes leave out the pressure altitude to start...

000
URNT12 KWBC 012319
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 1/2241Z
B. 12 DEG 29 MIN N
   65 DEG 43 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 129 DEG  77 KT
G. 050 DEG  14 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 16 C/2423 M
J. 17 C/2450 M
K. 14 C/NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C 30
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA2 0506A FELIX OB 09 
   MAX FL WIND 77 KT NE QUAD 2238Z

If we're not there, we will be before 11.

[floriduh voter]

Top Cat? I kind of remember a Top Cat.

[steveegg]

Say hello to Hurricat Felix. Waiting to see if it’s Intermediate Advisory 5A or a Special Advisory 6 to post it.