It's the MM5, a near worthless, primitive model. NHC basically ignores it. One thing to note is it is NOT the "FSU superensemble" (a completely different model, which is not public, that NHC will sometimes mention.)
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2007
...Felix continues to strengthen...now a category four hurricane...
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica and for Grand
Cayman. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should
closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located
near latitude 13.6 north...longitude 72.0 west or about 440 miles...
710 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Felix is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.
Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph...220
km/hr...with higher gusts. Felix is a category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
miles...185 km.
The minimum central pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 956
mb...28.23 inches.
Felix is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
over the Guajira Peninsula of northern Colombia.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...13.6 N...72.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140
mph. Minimum central pressure...956 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
CAT 4 140MPH winds
no change in FORECAST TRACK
CAT 4 140MPH winds
no change in FORECAST TRACK