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Why are we going to get crushed in the Senate races? We will probably lose seats, but we can keep it to -3 and under. Think about it:

Oregon - Democrats have not recruited a top tier candidate to face off against Smith. Leans Republican

New Mexico - The attorney “scandal” has died down and Democrats have not found a first rate challenger. Domenici should be safe. Leans Republican.

Nebraska - With Johannas in the race, even if Bob Kerry runs, I think Republicans have the advantage. Leans Republican.

Alaska - As long as their is no indictment against Stevens, this seat is safe. Safe Republican.

New Hampshire - The polls that show Sununu down 20 points are probably outliers. Two recent polls shown him down about 5 points. Still, this seat is in trouble. Leans Democrat.

Virginia - Unfortunately, this seat is lost. Likely Democrat.

Minnesota - This is going to be a close race, but if the Democratic nominee is Franken, I think Coleman will win. Leans Republican.

Maine - Collins is very popular. As long as Iraq does not go back into the dumps (a big if), Collins should be safe. Leans Republican.

North Carolina - Any vulnerability of Dole is probably of no concern as the Democrats have not found a top notch candidate to face her. Safe Republican.

Colorado - This race is close. Democrats probably lead right now, but I still think this is a toss up. Toss up.

Even if we say Colorado leans Democrat, right now I think we are looking at -3 at worst. Obviously, things could get a lot worse or a lot better between now and the election. And it is troublesome that we have 7+ seats that can go either way. Still, I stand by my prediction that we lose -3 at worst.