Posted on 01/04/2008 1:28:14 PM PST by Deaner59
SALEM, N.H. -- As presidential hopefuls today trade the icy temperatures of the Midwest for the equally icy temperatures of New England, political observers are all pondering the same question: Will the results of the Iowa caucuses alter opinions in the Granite State?
Maybe. Maybe not.
Over the last half-century, New Hampshire's famously independent first-in-the-nation primary voters have often followed their own path.
In 1980, former California Gov. Ronald Reagan won a two-to-one victory over George H.W. Bush here, despite Mr. Bush's earlier victory in Iowa. Eight years later, Mr. Bush, then vice president, won New Hampshire's Republican primary even though he had suffered a double-digit defeat at the hands of Sen. Bob Dole in Iowa.
In 2004, Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts surged in New Hampshire after his unexpected Iowa win. But that surge followed the implosion of Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's campaign.
(Excerpt) Read more at postgazette.com ...
Will the results of the Iowa caucuses alter opinions in the Granite State?
Maybe. Maybe not.
Freaking brilliant. Superb!
There may not be a “bounce” per se, but I think it establishes two things going in that will play a huge part in the final count:
1. Barack Obama can deliver the votes
2. Mitt Romney can’t
This settles two of the big questions that were influencing the New Hampshire race. I think it frees up a lot of people to vote their consciences who otherwise might not have.
It will matter if the enemedia favorite Rudy McHuckster does well, otherwise it won't matter.
Kerry’s “surge” was due to him being from MA....and had nothing to do with “YEEEEAAAARRRRGGGGHHHH!!!!!”.
...it’s a regional thing...and VT doesn’t count when comparing a VT/NH and MA/NH relationship.
Obama MIGHT get a little surge, but this is Hillary land up here.
Huckabee will get nothing.....as his church organizations don’t have the kind of pull that they did in IA.
......opinions abound!!!
My guess is that it probably will on the Dem side. Not so much on the Rep side. Most NH people don’t get all googly-eyed over Southern Baptist preachers.
New HAmpshire has never been just FOUR DAYS after Iowa before, have they?
No one I know is even talking about Huck.
Hucklebee’s churchianity will probably work against him in the godless atheist northeast.
>Most NH people don’t get all googly-eyed over Southern Baptist preachers.
Good point. - Most of us here don’t either.
Personally, I think that he is a bit of a kook.
The huckster has a nil chance of taking any of the important Southern States.
The Iowa caucus is an oddity that is losing its importance.
I can’t imagine people AREN’T talking about the Hucklester — but just about what a clown he is. I have no respect for anybody from Iowa now.
Nah; more like Granite Staters can spot a mountebank from a mile away.
Yeah it’s weird, but it’s true. Everyone is talking about voting for everyone, except Huck. It’s like Iowa never happened.
Ayup. You’re just about right, ichabod. This place is the other side of the world from the Bible Belt. If it feels good, do it. Pretty sad. But it’s still a great place to live. And the climate helps to keep the riff raff down somewhat.
I wouldn't bet the farm on that. Look what we did in '06.
:(
Hawkeye stubborm??? Give me a break. Blind as a bat Boobs, is more like it.
Who cares? I predict that more people will attend the NFL playoff games this weekend than will vote in the New Hampshire primaries.
Final 4 predictions:
GOP - McCain, Huckabee, Thompson, Paul.
Then Thompson will fold to McCain,
McCain will knock over Huckabee
and a McCain - Huckabee ticket will emerge.
A dissed Paul won’t endorse,
Dems - Clinton, Edwards, Obama and Richardson.
Then Clinton will fold to Richardson,
Edwards to Obama
and a Richardson - Obama ticket will result.
So it’s a shot. What’s yours?
On the GOP side: Huckabee will not win NH. When the time comes to vote in SC we will either see Fred Thompson begin to build momentum, if not a RINO nomination is probably a given.
If Huckabee, Rudy or Mitt are nominated Hillary will likely win. McCain will draw enough votes from the dim side to win. Fred? I can’t say at this point.
Here’s a snapshot of Intrade prices for NH. It looks like McCain is the guy to beat. You’d think Rudy would have more support.
Winner of 2008 Republican New Hampshire Primary
REP.NH.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win 20.0 5
REP.NH.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win 78.0
REP.NH.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win 0.6
REP.NH.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win 2.5
REP.NH.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win 0.3
REP.NH.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win M 3.0
Huckabee has surged because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.
I do not know Duncan Hunter’s strategy. However, he may yet surprise us even before New Hampshire. Because he has campaigned in Wyoming, which has a race before New Hampshire, and no one else is campaigning there.
Wyoming to Hold Overlooked GOP Caucus Before New Hampshire
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1947693/posts
Then there’s New Hampshire. Hunter’s already there while everyone else wraps up in Iowa.
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