You posted eloquently but I have to sincerely disagree with your premise. If you don't vote for who you think is best qualified, you will never get the person you want. Treating an election like a football game is not the right way to vote, and way to complicated what with all the permutations. Keep it simple, vote for who you think is best qualified, not the one you think will will or the one that might draw votes from an apponent.
What you say it true, but not as ole' Paul says, 'The rest of the story.'
Surely Fred is the purest conservative. However, I live in Delaware. Fred could not even gather enough signatures to get on the ballot here. Maybe that says something.