Thanks for the link. If they’re right and the current account deficit drops to 3.5% of GDP by the end of 2009, what will the whiners complain about?
For those of you who can handle the truth rather than bury your head in the sand, here are the major statements from Merrill Lynch's official statement to their shareholders regarding the financial climate for the next 24 months, from the link I posted to Toddsterpatriot, above.
Merrill Lynch states:
"The recession in housing has spilled over to the rest of the economy..."
ML assumes we are already in the beginning of a recession.
"Home prices are expected to decline by 15% in 2008 and by a further 10% in 2009, with more depreciation likely beyond the forecast period"
ML expects AT LEAST a 25% reduction in home prices in two years and ultimately 30% or more before a bottom in housing is reached. This points to recession.
We expect annual earnings to be $80, down 8.4% from 2007... The annual averages, however, mask a 20% peak-to-trough decline, which is typical of recessionary backdrops. We expect more write-downs will result in a 15% decline in reported earnings this year.
ML believes these losses and decreased earnings are recessionary.
We expect job losses in the range of 2.5 million, close to what we saw in the last recession. This in turn is expected to push the unemployment rate up to 5.57% by the end of 2008, and to 6% by early 2009.
ML believes these job losses are recessionary.
Rising unemployment, $6 Trillion in lost housing wealth, combined with slumping equity valuations, and the lack of participation from the baby boomers for the first time in three decades likely will result in the worst consumer recession since 1980.
That is ML's third declarative statement of RECESSION, clearly backing their reasoning for supporting their conclusions, unlike those who cherry pick data and pulls conclusions out of thin air.
For the sake of those of you who aren't like ToddsterIDontWantToKnow, let me repeat ML's financial projections for their shareholders for the next 24 months...
...likely will result in the WORST CONSUMER RECESSION SINCE 1980.
Sorry for shouting, but it was worth repeating, and firmly, otherwise some might be tempted to be swayed by Toddsterpatriot's desire to disregard all of this key information.
Market participants and policy makers alike have pretty much abandoned the notion that the US slowdown is merely confined to housing.
US retailers just experience the worst holiday season since 2001. Which cannot have come as much of a surprise considering that consumer confidence hit the lowest point it ever has during any crisis in the last 20 years.
Let me repeat that again...
...consumer confidence hit the lowest point it ever has during any crisis in the last 20 years.
My fingers are tired, so people will just have to read the rest of the information at the link above, and posted to see why Merrill Lynch believes we have begun a long, deep recessionary period and to appreciate how much compelling data ToddsterWhatICantHearYou? glossed over in his attempt to completely discard professional financial projections. This information is not some editorial garbage, but the official financial forecast for Merrill Lynch's shareholders.
I wrote this post for the benefit of others, not for ToddsterIOnlySeeWhatIWantToSee, so you can see the FACTS of the matter in the link I provided to you, so you can appreciate the content in the link if you didn't already read it, and FWIW the conclusion by Merrill Lynch that we are already in a recession that will be deep and will be long.
Never mind the attempt to ignore that compelling financial data by those who would rather put their heads in the sand and pretend all is well and things are just peachy in the financial/business/economic world.
In the meantime, ToddsterOsterich ignores all he doesn't agree with, which is why I rarely to never post anything to him. It is a useless exercise in futility. The blind willingly remain stumbling in the dark. We'll see what he says after he trips and falls down...
Here is the link again, for those who did not open Merrill Lynch’s future economic projections and would like to: