Why doesn’t the whole country vote on the same day? That way you wouldn’t get people influenced by the media who the front-runner is.
Some people in the states yet to vote may decide NOT to vote for Mitt after hearing all the negative comments about him losing, even though as you said, he still has a chance, albeit a small one. If everyone voted on the same day, this disadvantage wouldn’t exist for some candidates.
If everyone had voted on the IA Caucus day, it’d probably be a race between Romney and Guliani with Thompson being a spoiler.
The U.S. electoral process is a disgrace.