How do you know we are not in a recession yet?
Even by your own definition, a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. That can only be known to have occurred some time after the 6 months of negative GDP is known. But that is only when the period is DEFINED, not when it occurs.
We may very well have begun a period of negative economic growth that will go on for 2 full quarters, and therefore be identified as such 6 months or more from now.
Saying we are not in a recession is sort of like seeing massive flood tides beating on the dikes protecting New Orleans and saying “but it hasn’t flooded yet.”
I understand your point, that a recession can’t be known in real time. I wish you understood my point, that the economy is in serious trouble and the liquidity crisis, the lack of wealth effect, crashing home prices, soaring inflation, and skyrocketting energy costs are overwhelming the economy and there is a very real expectation of recession, which just possibly has begun.
You have to have a definable metric in order to have a recession. You just cannot proclaim it.
If we are in recession, it’s media created.