[Matchett-PI]

Gary Kaltbaum http://www.garyk.com/

Links to his latest commentary here:
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/gkitermi/-75870.cfm

Major League Rotation By Gary Kaltbaum
TradingMarkets.com
March 20, 2008 10:00 AM ET

There is a very good chance the last of the bull market sectors have now entered their own private bear market... at least for the near term. These are the sectors I have been writing about as holding up during the carnage. This includes GOLD/SILVER, OIL, COMMODITIES, FERTILIZERS and AGRICULTURE. They have been the only game in town thus a lot of late money and a lot of momentum money flooded in. That cuts both ways as momentum is twice as quick to get out... thus the recent yonking. I do believe there is a longer term bull market in the COMMODITIES but there was no way they could keep the rate of ascent they have been experiencing.

That leads me to the potential good side of the equation. I am a big believer in inter-market work. That simply means if OIL goes down, what benefits? If COMMODITIES drop, what benefits? I believe there is a good chance that we are going to see rotation into areas that have been dead in the water... how about RETAIL, RESTAURANTS, TRAVEL , TRANSPORTS and the like.

You get where I am going with this. If we do not get rotation into these areas... look out as the market will break. If we do get rotation, I expect the market to hold.

[snip]

[oblomov]

I agree with Kaltbaum. I think we will see a big pullback in commodities here. Commodities have been a leveraged trade for a lot of hedge funds, and now the financial system is being de-leveraged.

[GOPJ]

I believe there is a good chance that we are going to see rotation into areas that have been dead in the water... how about RETAIL, RESTAURANTS, TRAVEL , TRANSPORTS and the like.

You get where I am going with this. If we do not get rotation into these areas... look out as the market will break. If we do get rotation, I expect the market to hold. Sounds about right...