SurveyUSA, which has been polling McCain vs. Hillary or Obama for months, has been VERY consistent in showing him winning enough states in the EC to win---KY, AR, FL, VA, NM, IA, and, yes, in some surveys, OH and tied in WI. This was before all the negative stuff came out about Hillobama.
So the media, which could not elect Algore, and which could not elect Kerry, probably won't elect Hillobama unless McCain commits political suicide.
I still think the GOP and Conservatives lose. We lose by nominating McCain, and McCain could very well be toasted once the Democrats have a nominee.
“Funny, all the doomsayers around here said, early on in 2006 when the polls showed the GOP losing, ‘The polls are right.’”
Surely you can’t expect me to speak for all the doomsayers you’ve encountered. I can only speak for myself.
I do not believe any electoral poll except the electoral college and the election results that count, and I object in principle to the way the media breathlessly (mis)uses polls to create stories about the horse race instead of objectively reporting the things about the candidates people actually need to know to make an informed decision.
The media may not have been able to elect Algore, but he did close the enormous polling gap by election day in terms of the complete popular vote — so much so that he actually overtook GWB. We were saved from Gore by the Constitution’s mandate for the composition of electors.
In the 2004 election, Rasmussen was the most accurate with his poll less than 1% of the final result. Zogby had Kerry winning that was off by about 10%, and he spent the next 6 months explaining why his poll so far off. The FOX News/Opinion Dynamic also had Kerry winning by about 5% in their final poll.