[Toddsterpatriot]

If only 2% of the 22T goes into default/foreclosure, then that’s 440 billion of writedowns the banks will need to take.

Unless the 2% loses 100% of its value, your $440 billion estimate is too large.

[cinives]

I realize that, but taking in the news that banks are recovering about 50% on most properties, there’s a huge backlog in the system where people who have not paid for 6 months are still living in the houses because they HAVEN’T EVEN BEEN CONTACTED by their lender, and a lot of people are trashing the houses on the way out, the actual % rate is hard to estimate.

I kinda fudged it because the actual current foreclosure rate is well over 2% and it will go a lot higher when the latest rate resetting of ARMS that occurred in March start getting delinquent.
http://activerain.com/blogsview/58601/FHA-vs-Subprime-default