This is probably true. I think a lot of people actually make up their minds during the debates... who is the most likable, who avoided gotchas, etc, etc.
Still I agree with the the National Review that we need to be careful listening to our own "echo-chamber" otherwise we'll still be sitting here waiting for that "groundswell" of Fred Thompson support to roll in leading the cavalry charge of "true" conservatives. (sound of crickets chirping).
BUT HE CAN STILL WIN.
Remember, the American Electorate is a weird thing. Not to bright, not too dumb, but EASILY gullible enough to fall for Obama. Obama will get a turnout from various groups that will be historically high. McCain will be lucky to get votes. Obama will be coddled by the media, he will have MUCH more money to spend. Remember, most elections, even landslides, still hinge on that mushy 20%. Well THOSE people are political, historical, and economic MORONS.
Obama can EASILY win the Presidency, despite what we here on FR know about him. Ultimately it wont be us here who make the difference, it will be the idiots watching the "news" and seeing all those commercials they will run..