The main sponsors of the so-called news media started the propaganda scare that fired the food scare “speculators” up. Before that, they paid to have lots of propaganda spewed about a recession to come then put a lock against hiring the first of December.
They want to slow certain communist Asian economies down a little in order to bring oil down and the dollar back up. They are the “free traders.” But they won’t get what they want before getting enough courage to stop trying to hinder defense (Iran) and letting oil go temporarily high, until that’s done.
Oil will go much higher and the dollar much lower, after Iran has nuclear weapons. It’s time to find the will to fight that our previous generations had.
Oh, just btw, Rough Rice was down the limit today, with the offer pool about 2700. In plain English, that means it's almost surely headed lower again tomorrow.
It's still a buy, of course. Asian nations have a longstanding cultural imperative to be self-sufficient in rice. Bar a miraculously huge crop this year, that ain't-a-gonna happen.
One of the leading rice experts in the world, Milo Hamilton (lead buyer for Uncle Ben for 12 years, helped write the Rough Rice contract on the Chicago Board of Trade, asks and gets $10,000/month for his industry newsletter) says flat out that $30/cwt is a lock cinch, and $50/cwt has a decent shot, esp if any Asian crop fails as did the Philippines' crop last year.
This is very unusual; Milo is usually a more-or-less perma-bear. For him to throw numbers around like this is A) unprecedented, and B) frankly, scary.
It's going much higher before it goes much lower. Take it to the bank. Speculators may have part of the action here, but the real 800-lb gorilla in the rice mkt is the Asian psyche. Asian nations who are running short on rice won't just buy for actual need. No, no, they'll buy in advance of actual need and then they'll buy -- and hugely -- in advance of perceived possible need.
I don't typically feel sorry for other traders in the mktplace. After all, I'm there to take their capital. However, that said, I **really** feel for the shorts in the rice mkt -- they are going to get hammered like they can't believe.