I really don't think McCain can lose with Palin. He'll pick up a large portion of the Hillary supporters and solidify his pro-life conservative base in one fell swoop.
Plus he will have somebody on the ticket who has actually "governed".
You never know, but Palin will get tarred (unfairly) with all the problems of the Senator from Alaska -— they appeared together, fundraised together, she’s on video saying what a great guy he is -— all the stuff one does in a small-population state.
Palins one weakness issues wise, experience, is unassailable since Obama suffers even more from the same problem.
Time for a young, dynamic conservative on the ticket. Palin or Cantor is fine by me.
Obama's victory strategy requires he win some of the red states from the last election. If you look at the current Rasmussen electoral college count, here, you'll see which states are in play.
There is also the issue of any constituency that is represented by the candidate which might be influenced by the selection of that candidate.
Palin:
1. State: Alaska is firmly behind McCain. It has only 3 electoral votes. No real logic in using state as a reason to choose Palin.
2. Special Constituency: females. This is significant and should be considered since Hussein Obama has "burka"ed Hillary.
3. Other: strong pro-life conservative. 4. Evaluation: strong.
5. Weakness: new executive.
Cantor:
1. State: Virginia. Virginia is on the line and Cantor could make a difference in which way it tilts, especially since Kaine was not chosen. Virginia's 13 electoral votes would bump McCain's total up to 260, still 10 short of a victory.
2. Special Constituency: Jewish. The Jewish vote could consolidate McCain's strength in Florida and Ohio, but I don't see any one state that it would tilt to McCain.
3. Other: strong pro-life conservative
4. Evaluation: strong
5. Weakness: limited executive experience.
Romney:
1. State: Massachusetts & Michigan. There is no hope that Romney will sway Mass to McCain. However, he is a Michigan native where his father was a governor, and it went strongly for him in the primary. Michigan could be tilted to McCain by a Romney selection. That would bring McCain's totals to 267, 3 short of 270 needed to win.
2. Special Constituency: Mormon. The Mormon vote in Colorado could tilt that state to McCain. Additionally, Mormons are spread throughout the entire US, and they have shown a tendency to work the political scene on Romney's behalf. There is the possibility, however, that a Mormon VP would send certain elements of conservative Christianity to the Constitution Party candidate or to not vote at all.
3. Other: Romney controls huge wealth which would be a great asset. He also has considerable experience in business and governance.
4. Evaluation: strong with some risk.
5. Weakness: past liberal on abortion and homosexuality. Also, a lightning rod for many conservatives based on health care and illegal immigration positions.
Jindal:
1. State: Louisiana is firmly behind McCain, so Jindal has no impact.
2. Special constituency: I believe Jindal is Native American. This could give McCain some traction with minorities in general. It might make a difference in places like Colorado and Nevada, both on the line electorally.
3. Other: strong pro-life fiscal conservative.
4. Evaluation: strong
5. Weakness: new executive
After looking at all of these, I think that any of the above are acceptable, but Palin and Cantor look strongest to me. Your logic about Palin is sound. It is very reasonable to cause a conflict between the female vote and the minority vote.