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To: Navy Patriot
I think you are absolutely right about the short term. Right now Russia has the juice (literally) to cause us a bunch of trouble.

But Russia has big trouble. The have short term leverage (oil and cash) but a long term problem. They're dying. The men have a high degree of alcoholism and the women are voting with their bodies and not having children. They are half the size of the U.S. in population and shedding half a million people a year. The demographic situation is so bad that in a generation they will have only a few million women of child bearing age. Also, in 40 years or so their population will be 1/2 Muslim.

Can they use their oil and cash now to solve their long term problem by gobbling new territory? I don't know. I tend to doubt it. Mergers are tough and those by force more so. Forced socialization of disparate populations takes hundreds of years if it works at all. The last time they tried it came unraveled in only 70 years. It will be much tougher this time around. This time they don't have time on their side.

56 posted on 08/29/2008 8:56:04 AM PDT by Poison Pill
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To: Poison Pill
I cannot disagree with any part of #56, an excellent analysis.

For Russia to do well long term, her leader must restore Russian national pride WITHOUT making her a pariah, massively broaden the base of her economy while making it lightly regulated free enterprise, provide honest courts and public servants, and the rule of law. Communism, or theft in any disguise, must go. A whopping job.

57 posted on 08/29/2008 11:46:36 AM PDT by Navy Patriot (John McCain, the Manchurian Candidate.)
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