“These pollsters have been wrong before!”
Rasmussen called 2004 within 1 point for both Bush and Kerry. His final numbers were Bush 50.2, Kerry 48.5. The election result was Bush 50.7 Kerry 48.3. He also called all 24 state races that he polled in 2006 correctly.
This is the real state of the race right now. Obama got a bump out of his convention while it’s too early to see a GOP bump. So far, I say again, so far, Palin isn’t pulling the PUMAs.
>> Obama got a bump out of his convention while it’s too early to see a GOP bump. So far, I say again, so far, Palin isn’t pulling the PUMAs.
Convention bump (+3 in Ras) was evident by Friday. The second bump (from +3 to +6) is more likely Palin shifting some undecideds to Obama.
Of course, this is hardly conclusive - but plausible.
Basing anything on numbers out of a 3 day holiday weekend is amusing.
All we know is that the post election bump is no accounted for, and its not much. By the same time next week we’ll know where the race stands post the RNC.
I don’t care what race it is, I would never read into a poll taking over a 3 day holiday weekend to reflect an accurate state of anything.
What we do see is the post convention bounce, and its not much of one.