In Oct 2004, the month before the Bush-Kerry election, Rasmussen used this formula for polling: Republican: 37.2% Democrat 38.7%, Unaffiliated 24.1%. Consequently, Rasmussen was able to achieve a remarkable accuracy on the final stats—about a half percent off.
For September 2008, the Rasmussen targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated — a 7.6% edge for Democrat participation. We WILL see a change in the polls as we get closer to the election, of this there is no doubt.
“For September 2008, the Rasmussen targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated — a 7.6% edge for Democrat participation. We WILL see a change in the polls as we get closer to the election, of this there is no doubt.”
Rasmussen’s targets change based on the electorate at the time. He’s been tracking the electorate for years, and there were many more self-identified Republicans in 2004 than there are now. The Pubbies have no one but themselves to blame for that, for not living up to their conservative promises. Their numbers tanked with the amnesty proposal in ‘05 (gee, thanks McCain) and have never recovered.
This is BHO’s convention bump, so the polls will of course tighten. I’ve been saying for months that this election was going to be very, very close. I stand by that.