Thanks for the info on RAS. After the DEM Convention Obama’s bounce did not happen until about noon on Labor Day, the Monday after his speech.
Fact is Obama is only up 46 to 45, before McCain’s bounce.
“Fact is Obama is only up 46 to 45, before McCain’s bounce.”
No. This poll has a 2% margin of error, to a 95% confidence level. Therefore “46 to 45” could really be anywhere between “44 to 47” to “48 to 43”. In other words, McCain could really be ahead now. There’s a 5% chance the spread could be even greater in either direction.
Including leaners, the spread could be anywhere from “47 to 48” to “51 to 44”. So, even including leaners, McCain could be ahead also. As above, there’s a 5% chance the spread is greater.
It’s important to remember that polls do not represent “exact” anything. They are most useful in establishing trends. These polls should be referred to as a “statistical tie”, and are VERY encouraging for McCain/Palin.
McCain/Palin ‘08!