Michigan came out post Convention - Virtual tie.
So when will we get data post convention on Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida ?
Well the last statewide poll I saw, was quinnipiac on 8/26 which showed Fauxbama up 7, 49 to 42, but this was just after the dem convention with no R convention numbers at all. Even then I think these numbers are off, I think the polls are oversampling Philly.
This is a blue dog state, there are a lot of folks here who while registered D are going to be voting for McCain, many for the first time in their lives, others for the first time since Reagan.
There is anger over a lot of Bush policies and mismanagement of the war, but given the candidate put forward by the democrats and the dynamics of this race, I don’t see the “referendum on Bush” using McCain as a surrogate as flying.. Fauxbama is going to have to win, by convincing folks hes the best man for the job, and I don’t see that dog hunting in this state.
I am certain the next poll assuming its post convention will not show a major lead at all for Fauxbama, I’d say you are looking a poll that will show one or the other candidate leading by maybe 2 points.