[NMR Guy]

It's nice to see McCain gaining in a lot of states, but in the end I doubt he will take MI, NH, or Iowa. So then it will end up playing out very much like 2004:

1. McCain needs to hold onto Ohio and Florida. He has the advantage there right now, but will need to work hard to hold on.

2. He will then need to take either one of Colorado or New Mexico to win. Although today there is a good poll out on New Mexico, I have doubts about whether he will end up taking that state. If it's close, look for him to lose the state due to fraud, which seems to be a serious problem in NM every election.

So it will likely all come down to Colorado. McCain doesn't seem to have gotten a big bounce there yet, and is trailing in the RCP average. I would say there needs to be a concerted conservative voter registration drive for the state and a decent grassroots push by Freepers and others now through November.

[longtermmemmory]

I WONDER how much these close polls are about helping the local markets sell adds.

If the race is not lcose then there are no reasons to buy ads.

[Freeze923]

Assuming McCain holds OH, FL, VA, and NV
(losing IA)

Then McCain needs to win only one of the following states:

NM, CO, MN, MI, WI, PA

Personally I think NM or WI are the most likely.

[BrianE]

2. He will then need to take either one of Colorado or New Mexico to win. Although today there is a good poll out on New Mexico, I have doubts about whether he will end up taking that state. If it’s close, look for him to lose the state due to fraud, which seems to be a serious problem in NM every election.

Sounds familiar just like here in Missconsin where Bush was up 10,000 votes before elections were closing then lost by around 10,000 yep no surprise, this state is turning into another Illinoyd where liberal college students in Madison bragged about voting early & often.