It looks like it is trying to build a much more compact eyewall on visible sat, water vapor and radar. And there is quite a flareup of convection south and east of the eye. Not good. A big punch of convection is starting to wrap around into the northern part of the void where the 60 mile wide eye was - and if that is the case, it means the east side of the eyewall is going to hit Galveston Island directly instead of hitting off to the east a bit. I agree, it is strengthening, and that is NOT GOOD - a hurricane strengthening at landfall packs more punch and carries hurricane-force winds further inland as well.
STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION.
Quite refreshing to see that!
History shows a storm moving this direction into TX has a decent shot at strengthening at landfall. The little shelf off the coast is very warm and if conditions above are good, watch out. I thought the overall large circulation might keep Ike from tightening up too much too quick on the way in, but satellite this evening is troubling. It’s one thing to deal eith the given surge at this point, but once you ramp up winds a little more then that becomes a much bigger problem too. I’d still say it doesn’t go up more than 10kts, but the next few hours can be critical.