Wrong. Once again, they UNDERFORECAST Katrina's surge (despite your claims that they always OVERFORECAST hurricane effects). If I am living at 29 feet, and the forecast says it could reach 30 feet, and if the surge forecast history for Katrina is any guide, they could UNDERFORECAST the surge by 5-7 feet, LIKE WHAT HAPPENED WITH KATRINA. And that doesn't even begin to factor in wave action - if the track holds, the winds are going to be blowing diagonally across the bay and right into the area in question.
But the key point is, if someone is at 29 feet above sea level, that is not a sufficient margin for forecast error - they already are facing water in their house if the 10 percent forecast holds. If Ike produces Cat-5 level surge as some feel could happen because of the size of the storm, computer modeling I have seen shows a Cat 5 hitting at high tide could generate 35 foot storm surge at the head of the bay. So I'm basing my opinions on several sources. You, in turn, are living in denial of what happend just three years ago. I'm not going to clutter up this thread any more with a pointless exchange with you, I've made my point, you may had the last comment. And I'm sure if the 10 percent doesn't happen, you'll be strutting around telling people I'm a doomsayer. Just like people in NOLA pointed to the warnings about Ivan and said that Katrina was being overhyped as well, don't worry, the Big Easy is always spared. Guys like you give evacuation managers heartburn.
For the record, 1836 people lost their lives in Katrina.
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I never heard of anyone saying this. People failed to evacuate for Katrina for all kinds of reasons, good and bad. But this is the first time anyone's suggested to me a significant number of persons thought Katrina was hyped, or that NOLA has nothing to fear from hurricanes.
By all means, let's abandon this fruitless exchange.