Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

New Rasmussen Poll: McCain/Obama statistically tied in Washington; Rossi up 6
Rasmussen Reports ^

Posted on 09/12/2008 9:56:01 AM PDT by swmopatriot

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-71 next last
To: Corin Stormhands

Been a few threads on this already...

I was actually one of the ones polled for this. That’s what changed it :~)


21 posted on 09/12/2008 10:24:48 AM PDT by HairOfTheDog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: swmopatriot

You need Washington’s 11 electoral votes, Obama, but they are slipping away.


22 posted on 09/12/2008 10:25:34 AM PDT by Califelephant (If only Sarah Palin had some Community Organizer experience.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Owen

Owen, erosion in WA, one of the bluest of blue states, shows that your battlegrounds are going to flip or be held as well.


23 posted on 09/12/2008 10:27:35 AM PDT by Don'tMessWithTexas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: nathanbedford
Only if she can select her own running mate. She will NEVER play second fiddle to someone else. Either she gets to be President or nothing. I can't think of any reason why Hillary would settle for less than The Prize. Would you?

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

24 posted on 09/12/2008 10:29:23 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: SampleMan
Great point. It will be interesting to see where he closes down operations and which states get the big ad buys. If Obama had good fundraising totals in August we would have heard about it by now, which means that he is probably running low on cash. I agree with you that he has a massive staff and there's no way he's going to be able to keep all of them. If he lets them go the psychological impact alone from the media reporting could give the GOP another 1-2% at the polls.
25 posted on 09/12/2008 10:35:36 AM PDT by aegiscg47
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: swmopatriot

Palin may help in Washington due its proximity to Alaska. There’s a lot of AK to WA transplants.


26 posted on 09/12/2008 10:36:31 AM PDT by Chet 99 (http://www.mccainpalinvictory2008.com/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: swmopatriot

A new poll shows barack mcgovern just + 2 in Washington. I guess it is true that he is like a burning tire around the neck of down ballot democrats. This is great news!


27 posted on 09/12/2008 10:40:01 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nathanbedford

Hillary is not stupid.

There is NO WAY she is going to try to cushion his fall.

He made his bed, he’ll have to lie in it.


28 posted on 09/12/2008 10:50:31 AM PDT by Keith (McCain-Palin Get off your duff and work to get them elected!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: swmopatriot

I’m in a Seattle suburb. A few days ago, a couple of guys in their early 20s came around campaigning for Rossi. Never had a Republican campaigner visit before.


29 posted on 09/12/2008 10:53:16 AM PDT by shteebo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99

There are a lot of small-’C’ “conservative” Californian expatriates that have moved to WA state in recent years too.


30 posted on 09/12/2008 10:55:10 AM PDT by The KG9 Kid
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop; Keith
In 1960 they said that Lyndon Johnson and Jack Kennedy would never occupy the same ticket if for no other reason than Bobby Kennedy wouldn't stand for it.

It is almost impossible to know what might motivate Bitch Clinton in her calculations. She will have considered that nearly a third of modern vice presidents go on to be president.

That is, if they win. If they don't win, she is virtually the automatic nominee in 2012. I do not suggest that these arguments are conclusive but they are certainly persuasive and no one can guarantee that Hillary will not go for it.


31 posted on 09/12/2008 10:58:16 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat attack!" Bull Halsey)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: swmopatriot

If Obama can’t win Washington, it is over for him.

__

He can’t and it is.

Washington is part of my landslide scenario. Some of these shifts have moved so fast that they only need to keep moving at glacier speed to ensure victory.

HOUSE OF REPS in play-—BIG TIME.


32 posted on 09/12/2008 11:03:09 AM PDT by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: swmopatriot

LOL !!! What if Nobama won NM(5) and NV(5) and LOST WA(11) [I think those numbers are right]. That would still be a net loss of minus 1 !!!


33 posted on 09/12/2008 11:09:28 AM PDT by 11th_VA (The smart liberals are worried, the dumb ones think they've already won ...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: iowamark

I agree it was stolen and the reason Rossi is on top now is that he handled like a gentlemen. No whining, no claims of thievery, no name calling.

The people of Washington State know what happened and it may just be a different story this time.


34 posted on 09/12/2008 11:09:39 AM PDT by 101voodoo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: nathanbedford

I can’t imagine any scenario where Hillary could be on the ticket now. Here is why.

1. If she was on the ticket she would have to wait till 2016 when she will be in her 70’s.

2. Joe Biden will never be a patsy and take the fall through some huge lie or plot to get rid of him. He won’t resign willingly. He is in safe position in the party apparatus and they would not risk him shooting his mouth off and defecting and sinking the Obama\Clinton ticket

3. Adding Clinton does’nt automatically add to his vote totals and plus him picking her would make him look vacillating and transparent and is way to risky a strategy.

4. Hillary is a loser just like Obama and Loser+Loser != Winner. She brings out a whole other layer of hatred in the Republican base. She is shrill, wild eyed and prone to losing it.

I agree with Collins blog, this deal is over September 30th and the DEM party will focus on keeping territory they currently own, the Senate and House. Like Rush said..”A Black Marxists from the Chicago corrupt political machine...good luck with that.”


35 posted on 09/12/2008 11:11:05 AM PDT by pburgh01
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: swmopatriot
From Rasmussen Reports...

Polling released earlier today shows McCain gaining ground in the traditionally blue state of Washington. Obama’s lead is down to just two percentage points. Rasmussen Markets data now shows gave McCain to be a slight favorite for victory in November. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants and currently give McCain a 51.7 % chance of victory. Expectations for Obama are at 46.6 %. Prior to this past week, expectations for a Democratic victory had generally been in the 60% range.

36 posted on 09/12/2008 11:11:25 AM PDT by SuperSonic (Bush "lied", people dyed.......their fingers purple.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: swmopatriot
I'm not sure about the repeated use of the phrase "statistically tied." There is a real difference between the results. Let me demonstrate.

Rasmussen polling has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. When he reports Obama has 49% in Washington, that means it could be as low as 44.5%, and as high as 53.5%. McCain's 47% means that it could be as low as 42.5%, and as high as 51.5%.

If you stack these ranges side-by-side, you'll see that Obama has an uncontested zone where he wins outright, and a larger zone where either candidate could be ahead. The uncontested zone increases as the separation increases.

If you simulated an election by randomizing a number between the +/- ranges of margin of error, and then giving the win to the candidate with the higher random number, you'd see the real impact of a 2% spread in the poll result.

Look at the probabilities of winning for each point of separation in a poll with a 4.5% margin of error:

I'd say that a 2% difference that results in a 69% chance of actually winning is not a statistical tie. Am I wrong?

-PJ

37 posted on 09/12/2008 11:18:21 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too (You can never over-estimate the Democrats' ability to overplay their hand.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: swmopatriot; fieldmarshaldj; Kuksool; Clintonfatigued; JohnnyZ; Clemenza; Coop; Impy; ...

In its most recent poll, Rasmussen has Obama leading McCain in Washington State by only 49%-47% (and Dino Rossi leading the RAT Gregoire by 6%). This is confirmation (and then some) of the Survey USA poll from a couple of days ago that showed McCain cutting Obama’s WA lead to only 4% (49%-45%) and Rossi taking a narrow lead. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2077844/posts

If WA is this close, so must be California (President Bush got only 1.28% less in CA than in WA in 2004, and CA’s demographics are actually a bit tougher for Obama than WA’s demographics because Obama doesn’t do as well with Hispanic and Jewish voters as with other Democrats). I can’t wait for the next poll out of CA to come out; if it shows McCain within 3%-5% of Obama, as may well be the case, liberals’ heads will explode.

There’s a real chance that McCain/Palin may end up winning over 400 electoral vote and Obama will be remembered as this generation’s Michael Dukakis. However, we need to keep fighting for the next 53 (or whatever) days and not take and votes for granted.


38 posted on 09/12/2008 11:41:00 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (Fred Thompson appears human-sized because he is actually standing a million miles away.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Keith; ConservativeMan55
Hillary is not stupid. There is NO WAY she is going to try to cushion his fall. He made his bed, he’ll have to lie in it.

As CM55 says. The Dems have bought their ticket, now they shall take their ride.

39 posted on 09/12/2008 11:49:28 AM PDT by NeoCaveman (Annoy the media, end the Obamanation, vote maverick, McCain/Palin '08; Free Laz; Drill baby drill)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: AuH2ORepublican
I can’t wait for the next poll out of CA to come out; if it shows McCain within 3%-5% of Obama, as may well be the case, liberals’ heads will explode.

Next up - Illinois! :-D

40 posted on 09/12/2008 11:52:48 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-71 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson