The fact that they had Kerry winning big this time 4 years ago doesn’t give me much confidence in this.
Why not? Kerry is a political genius compared to Zero.
Ever here of the Bradley effect?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
Barring some unforseen event, this election is gonna be a rout.
**The fact that they had Kerry winning big this time 4 years ago doesn’t give me much confidence in this.**
It does give me some. The typical pattern is for the Democrat to come out of the convention cycle with a good lead, double digits, and for it to dissipate. The narrowing occurs in the last weeks. That does not work the other way around. The Republican candidate for President does not follow the same pattern. Typically it is Dems lose support and Repubs gain support during the last few weeks. The question is whether the angle of the ascent and descent lines cross before the election.
There is reason to be hopeful based on past polling patterns.