[TomEwall]

This doesn’t have anything to do with my calculations, which were taken from Intrade, not from polls.

Anyway, that’s great news! You saw a couple of days ago there was a Michigan poll that had McCain ahead by 1?

[flyfree]

The problem with using Intrade to predict is that people invest in Intrade for the short term as well as the long term. From what I have been able to tell, Intrade is fine at reflecting how people feel at the moment, but is a lousy predictor of the future.

I could have made a fortune on Intrade voting for McCain and against Romney.