Obama will lose because he has to win all these 4 states to get into the Black House. PA,WI,MI,MN. He will lose at least one of them. Game over.
Exactly, this is the point I’ve been making since the day he got the nomination.
Fauxbama has to win every state Kerry got and pick up at least 19 EC votes to win, and he can’t do it. Everyone talks about the 80k votes in OH, however in terms of percentage of the votes cast PA was far closer than OH.. the difference was only 140k votes.
Fauxbama does not have the support of democrats that Kerry got, in 2004 election Kerry got 89% percent of support from dems, and Bush got 93% support from republicans. Kerry got like 51% of the women vote and the independent vote was pretty much a 50/50 split. Fauxbama is not polling near these numbers at all, his support within dems is in the low 80s at best, McCain’s in the mid to upper 80s, Fauxbama is down among women, doing even worse among men than Kerry and McCain has the independents by a solid margin.
Again, Kerry won PA by about 140k votes, and that was with solid support among the Blue Dogs and Moderate Dems and the party machine firing on all cylinders for him. Fauxbama has none of this. He cannot win PA.
The real battleground folks in the rust belt at this stage of the election, MI, WI and PA, Fauxbama cannot survive losing any of these. Lets say a worst case scenario and VA flips (I don’t believe for one minute it will, but lets just play devils advocate, and say Fauxbama picks up VA’s 13 votes, holds Colorado 9 and gets NM 5, that’s 27 votes, he needs 19 to get the White House... Now that’s breaking Fauxbama way every R state that’s close.... But Fauxbam loses just the smallest EC vote of all these states, of WI (10) EC votes, and everything else stays (NH doesn’t go R like its looking, and he holds PA & MI. Fauxbama still is only up 17, and dems need 19, he loses.
I am being beyond generous to put up that scenario, as I have no doubt VA will stay R, and that Fauxbama is going to lose at least PA, and probably 2 of the 3 states of MI, PA and WI. Not to mention NH looks like it will flip and I’ve been telling folks for a few weeks keep an eye on WA, I think dems are in for a big suprise there. I am also not convinced that Fauxbama is going to pull off CO or NM on election day. IA possibly because of ethanol subsidies, but other than that I don’t really see any previous R state flipping.
I see WAY WAY more D states that have been trending R slowly over the last several cycles, that with a strong D candidate would even have trouble holding due to long term trends, but with this schlub as the guy on the ticket, there is no doubt they will move R.
Now, with all that said, I truly think this election is not going to be close, these 1-3% projections I think are absolute hogwash, I think its going to be a blowout. Not a 49 to 1 EC victory like a Reagan, but definately not the 1-3% close race folks are calling for.
The election is really a matter of letting folks who are mad at Bush know that yea, mistakes have been made, but even so you can’t trust this neophite empty suite done nothing. When folks walk into that voting booth, most of them are not going to say, I’m ticked at Bush and Republicans and they need to pay, and vote to but Fauxbama in the white house. Any other Dem most likely would be cakewalking this election, but they put up the one guy who never ever had a chance.