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The First Debate Could Be Decisive (Rove)
Wall Street Journal ^ | September 25, 2008 | Karl Rove

Posted on 09/24/2008 10:25:37 PM PDT by BAW

Presidential debates are important -- and the first debate is the most important of all, establishing an arc of opinion that persists unless jarred loose by big mistakes or dramatic events.

So whether this year's first presidential debate between Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain is Friday night or postponed a few days, it may be the fall's most critical event. In the nine first debates since 1960, the perceived winner of the debate averaged a 4.2 point net swing in the Gallup poll.

Mr. Obama fought hard to have the first clash devoted to foreign policy and the last on the economy. It may be smart to end the series on his strongest turf. But that means the debates start on ground where Mr. McCain is more comfortable, having a sizable poll lead on who'd be a better commander in chief.

Here's the advice some experts I consulted offered the candidates:

First, do no harm. Persistent proficiency is better than big mistakes. Remember Al Gore's sighs in 2000? President George H.W. Bush glancing at his watch in 1992? Michael Dukakis's botched answer to Bernie Shaw's death-penalty question in 1988?

Know what you want to achieve and have that narrative down cold, for yourself and for your opponent. How do you want potential defectors and converts to see and feel about you and your opponent when it's over? How do you accentuate your strengths and his weaknesses?

Answer the questions. Voters don't like it when candidates are not responsive. Mr. McCain shone so much brighter at Rev. Rick Warren's Saddleback conversation because he answered with plain talk and simple declarative statements.

People want to see candidates operating without a script. They are clamoring for spontaneity. So avoid hyper-repetition.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: debate; debates; electionpresident; mccainpalin
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To: Myrddin

if it was Mccain vs Evan Bayh then a debate would be useful. But this is a difference between night and day...and the public school kids wouldn’t get anything from the debate anyway


21 posted on 09/24/2008 11:14:36 PM PDT by ari-freedom (We never hide from history. We make history!)
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To: BAW

In 2004, most talking heads thought that Bush lost all 3 debates. Especially the 1st one.


22 posted on 09/24/2008 11:18:32 PM PDT by ruschpa
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To: JennysCool

Well it will be if Obama shows up and calls present like he did today!


23 posted on 09/24/2008 11:19:20 PM PDT by Always Independent
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To: Dilbert San Diego

Even Warren Buffett, an Obama supporter, today called this an “economic Pearl Harbor”. Now think back just last month to Hurricane Gustav when people like Bobby Jindal clear their calendar to attend to a catastrophe unfolding in his state. The GOP even pushed back their convention. For 9/11, we cancelled a lot of events around the country. But the nation is on the verge of economic catastrophe and Obama says it’s time to multitask? Bull****. It’s time to do something about this before this gets out of control and we have hundreds of banks failing and the economy implodes. This economic crisis is the number ONE problem in America and Biden, Obama and McCain are US Senators and they ought to be in Washington working on a solution. Solve this problem and solve it now. The Democrats have already punted on energy. Don’t let them punt on the economy.


24 posted on 09/24/2008 11:26:38 PM PDT by ikeonic
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To: Myrddin

The Marxists have succeeded in dumbing down our children. Many are inexcusably ignorant. When Obama or Biden make incredibly stupid gaffes, the kids don’t even notice. They take the lies at face value.

Marxists became the professors teaching the next generation of teachers. The mantra that’s been : “Diversity, diversity, diversity...and don’t forget diversity.”

Who passes muster as “diverse?” African Americans and Latinos, followed by Islamic terrorists and homosexuals.


25 posted on 09/24/2008 11:33:18 PM PDT by Seeing More Clearly Now
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To: library user

What happens if Mccain sends in Sarah to stand in for him on Friday night while he is doing the work of the country in Washington? Do you think that EVERYONE would be watching??? That would really shake things up... Why talk to en empty suit when there is a crisis???!!!


26 posted on 09/25/2008 12:58:37 AM PDT by beaware (Before we can drill in ANWR, we need to drill in DC!)
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To: Prokopton
That's the key, who is perceived to be the winner. This perception is largely based on who the media claims to be the winner regardless of what actually happens during the debate.

And the media has already rendered its decision.

27 posted on 09/25/2008 1:04:01 AM PDT by Allegra
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To: BAW
I still think that the Palin-Biden debate will be the most crucial. The first debate (McCain-Obama) will just be a bunch of jabs and feints; the candidates will probably agree more than the disagree. McCain, as is his wont, will be saying all manner of nice things about Obama, and Obama will make the obligatory references to McCain's heroic service. Although the DBM will declare Obama the winner, unless he really messes up (which is possible, but not likely given the debate format). The public will be a little more generous to McCain.

That's why the second (VP) debate will be the most crucial. Sarah will need to remind everyone (especially women voters) why we all fell in love with her, and she will need to be aggressive and name (Democrat) names on things like Fannie Mae (that's what a Vice-Presidential candidate is for, to be the pit-bull). With that mission accomplished, all she needs to do is wait to pounce when Biden gives one of his revisionist history lessons, or makes one of his classic gaffes.

When she does well, as I expect she will, that should tide McCain over until he gets his vaunted "town (hall) meeting" debate. Then we'll see if he really is the master of that venue (as he certainly believes he is).

28 posted on 09/25/2008 2:46:34 AM PDT by pawdoggie
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To: rdl6989

I assume you saw the Freddie Mae flub The One made w/the teleprompter. I didn’t notice an ear piece, but it seems like when he says “That’s what I said” it was in annoyance w/someone speaking in his ear.

The guy is a frickin puppet.


29 posted on 09/25/2008 2:46:44 AM PDT by steveyp
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To: Roamin53
Those 15% are what it is all about.

Those 15% must be so blind to contrast that I'm mystified about how a facile debate can inform them.

30 posted on 09/25/2008 3:01:29 AM PDT by Theophilus (Abortion: #1 National Security Issue, #1 Economic Issue, #1 Moral Issue)
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To: steveyp

Deer in the headlights? Senior moment?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3F-PMY72luY


31 posted on 09/25/2008 6:42:49 AM PDT by nclaurel (I think therefore I vote Republican.)
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