Some of them are (well, most of them are, and virtually every media poll is), but not Gallup. This is the only one that I trust even to be in the ballpark of accuracy, although I also like to follow Rasmussen as a reality check of sorts.
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Some of them are (well, most of them are, and virtually every media poll is), but not Gallup. This is the only one that I trust even to be in the ballpark of accuracy, although I also like to follow Rasmussen as a reality check of sorts.
Past elections prove otherwise. Republican candidates always outperform the polls. In 1996, only 2 polls out of more than a dozen polls were even within their margins of error on election day. What good is a margin of error when it can be exceeded?
In 1996, Battleground and John Zogby were closest to being right, but besides all their math and methodology I count it as luck. At least they were not reporting exaggerated numbers like the other polls.
Trying to poll people after they have voted, for the purpose of "calling a state" by the media has also proved to be demonstrably false (for example: 2000). Huge disappointment as the agency fielding the pollsters was paid millions by all the major media outlets (including FOX) but a lot of their predictions were so WAY OFF as to be embarrassing.
Polls are fun to talk about, but so is getting your handwriting analyzed by a computer at the county fair. Interesting for five minutes, but only accurate by chance.