FOX/Rasmussen Swing State Polling - September 28, 2008

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 9/29/08 | Scott Rasmussen

[Norman Bates]

Polling this week in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia shows that Barack Obama has gained a net 3 to 5 percentage points in each state compared to the previous Fox News/ Rasmussen Reports poll.

In Pennsylvania, Obama now leads by eight percentage points, 50% to 42%.

In Virginia, it’s Obama 50% and McCain 47%.

The candidates are within a single point of each other in Colorado (Obama 49%, McCain 48%), Florida (Obama 47%, McCain 47%), and Ohio (McCain 48% Obama 47%).

[Chet 99]

And the Dims will sweep Congress and ram anything they want down our throats.

[Norman Bates]

We are not doing bad at all. Except for Pennsylvania and a tiny lead in Virginia these are all dead heats.

[Norman Bates]

Well if it’s any encouragement to you two recent PA polls with re-worked internals to match 2006 turnout show McCain very close in PA if not leading slightly.

[ABQHispConservative]

Heck, I’d feel better if we were up by 10, but the MSM will never allow this to happen. We have to keep the faith that America is with us. And I do believe that they are with us. We have to keep engage and get the rats out of the house and White House (I have lost faith in Bush, backing this socialist crap).

[padre35]

Sad about PA, but it is beginning to look like NJ for McCain/Palin, it teases and never delivers, next MI..

All in all, not a bad round of polls all things considered.

[ExTexasRedhead]

The Muslim Messiah’s fingerprints are all over this financial mess along with his ties to ACORN. When this becomes “common knowledge” along with his other dirt, then take an accurate poll. I don’t buy any of these biased polls at this point. I haven’t heard anyone around me praise the God Child and that includes Democrats.

[2ndDivisionVet]

I don’t know how they poll in Pennsylvania, but we’re leading there, just ask any FReeper who’s from there. The “bitter” comments are still haunting Senator Obama, and Governor Ed Rendell will do just enough to claim that he helped, and not a bit more, since he’s a Hillary man.

[snarkytart]

I don’t care what people say, “Im in denial..blah blah blah”, but I really do not trust Rasmussen with state polling, and I really really do not trust his polling when teamed with a cable news network. Yes, even if it’s Fox.

[workerbee]

Well, they are Rasmussen. So they are skewed to the left (rat) considerably.

What do you base this on? Scott Rasmussen is pretty well respected around here as a straight shooter and is one of the few pollsters who pegged things right in 2004.

Welcome to FR, btw.

[Perdogg]

If we lose Colorado in addition to NM and IA and all else, being equal we lose.

[Political Junkie Too]

I've been running a stochastic model of the electoral college count based on Rasmussen state polls going back to the beginning of the year.

Here are the results going back to the week of 30-Jun-2008:

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
30-Jun	247.61	14.79%
7-Jul	243.61	10.79%
14-Jul	246.70	12.66%
21-Jul	242.84	7.08%
28-Jul	230.98	2.46%
4-Aug	232.92	3.11%
11-Aug	234.99	4.16%
18-Aug	244.11	11.64%
25-Aug	253.91	21.71%
08-Sep	260.56	32.23%
15-Sep	275.60	62.48%
22-Sep	271.13	54.65%
29-Sep	244.48	14.85%

These are quite lower than last week. They are even lower than what Rasmussen was reporting as of Friday, before the latest swing state polls. See this post from Saturday with my earlier chart.

-PJ

[Red Steel]

On October 1st, Ras will probably double his sample size from 500 to 1000, as he has done in the past during the last month.

[magellan]

After today, and the coming market decline, I think we will see Florida flip to Obama. There are too many retirees there, and too many of them probably still have too much of their savings in S&P 500 index funds.

This election is essentially over. If, after people see their 401ks and IRAs value decline, they call their representatives and complain 300-1 to do something, the Republicans will vote to pass it on the next try, and will look like complete incompetent idiots.

I do not see how Virgina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, and Colorado will be in play.

The Republicans have lost their moral authority. They cannot go and blame this fiasco on Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, etc., because they have no answer to the obvious follow-up question "What are you doing to fix it?"

I don't even want to think about what the VP debate is going to be like, after what may be a 2,000 point decline in the Dow by then.

Obama in a landslide? Not in the popular vote. But this is moving away from a razor thin Electoral College decision.

I hope I am wrong.

[snarkytart]

Um, yes Kerry lead in some state polls this time in 2004, like New Mexico, and Colorado, PA, and Ohio went back and forth.

[ABQHispConservative]

To tell you the truth I don’t trust any poll. Too many biases. If it’s a phone interview, there’s interviewer bias. If it’s a paper survey, then there’s hypothetical bias. Plus, they sample based on what they believe the political distribution is, another added bias. The reliable poll is the one on election day.

[nclaurel]

[Norman Bates]

It’s women who are KILLING us in Pennsylvania. Obama has a 59-35 lead among them. McCain leads among men but not merely as much.

[Norman Bates]

My FRiend, if after all the damage we took last week with McCain suspending we are down only 1 in CO - we are NOT in a bad place. This election will tighten. Now it it I who must tell you to relax. :)

[Norman Bates]

When you accept that we had a really bad week last week that chart isn’t so scary.

[Cedric]

As the markets tank 10% a day?

Hell, why not 25% a day? Then by the weekend we'll all be foraging for food.