Posted on 09/29/2008 3:44:18 PM PDT by Norman Bates
Polling this week in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia shows that Barack Obama has gained a net 3 to 5 percentage points in each state compared to the previous Fox News/ Rasmussen Reports poll.
In Pennsylvania, Obama now leads by eight percentage points, 50% to 42%.
In Virginia, it’s Obama 50% and McCain 47%.
The candidates are within a single point of each other in Colorado (Obama 49%, McCain 48%), Florida (Obama 47%, McCain 47%), and Ohio (McCain 48% Obama 47%).
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
anytime I see a poll with the name “fox” next to it, I immedialty disregard it as factually flawed.
fox polls are about ratings NOT facts.
maybe all of the polls aren't wrong, but they all show statistical ties when adjusted for real turnout models - state polls, national polls, you name it.
However, if we just accept that the Democrats have beaten all historical records on party turnout increase in two short years, then there's no point in poll-watching anyway. We've lost, and there's no real hope of overcoming such a grand deficit. We'll lose 40 states with ten-point Party turnout swings.
But folks like me just don't buy that Obama has swung voter turnout in North Carolina by 15 points (today's poll), or Virginia by 19 points, or Pennsylvania by 9-10 points, or Florida/Ohio by 7-12 points. I think it's just unrealistic. The Democrats broke ALL of their records - new voters, black voters, turnout - in 2004 and then 2006, and barely swung party turnout ID. Nationally speaking, it was a Democrat LANDSLIDE, and they only swung national numbers 3%.
There is no WAY these polling assumptions are correct - not even Rasmussen (who showed no McCain bounce after the convention, then adjusted for more GOP voters for a week to veil his folly, then went back to 6% Dem lead in turnout assumed.
in 2004 - it was 47% to 47%. It is not going to be the assumed Dem+6 or more being used by pollsters.
These pollsters are using a MINIMUM of a six point turnout edge for Democrats - most of them are using 10 points or more. The most turnout has EVER changed - EVER EVER EVER - in one Presidential election was four whopping points. Four.
The truth is - Obama has a very slight edge in a race basically tied. There is no blowout coming. The pollsters will start to show a MYSTERIOUS closing of the gap by McCain so that their final numbers won't look ridiculous for the records. They always do this.
Remember — more Republicans vote than dimocrats, even though the dimocrats have more registered.....they just don’t vote.
Exposure in national ads on TV and radio. The truth needs to be exposed and people need to go to jail. Osama Obama’s fingers were in the pie and that needs to be exposed.
I fear you are right, but don’t lose hope...get out and fight harder... :-)
but it should not be this close... Obama is an empty suit... McCain should not have stopped his campaign... he should have kept going with the campaign even while he was in Washington... stopping the campaign did not pay off... it hurt him badly...
so again, if Obama holds his own, he's the winner...
what makes you see this? i keep waiting for it, but it hasn't happened... we have less than 36 days... can momentum really change that much as we get closer to the election? i'm hoping so, but i'm finding it hard to keep believing so... i thought the debate might change things a little, but it didn't... McCain lost three-five days... he needs to come back hard... where is he? Palin was drawing large crowds at the time he made her stop... that's crazy! and now he's fallen further behind...
that's when things were looking up before for the financial crisis... before he suspended his campaign... i don't see Obama sweating anything right now... he seems confident... i don't know how McCain looks... where is he?
they don't see it that way... Obama has gotten no bad press at all... where are McCain's ads linking him to this mess? why didn't McCain speak up at the debate? Obama is smelling like a rose right now... he doesn't deserve to, but he is...
Obama doesn’t look confident to me. Sweaty, thuggish and angry.
McCain and Palin in Ohio looking just as confident as ever!
I dont know....I think McCain is missing major opportunities to punt the arrogant one and he is not making the case! This is a democrat financial crisis in which BO voted “present”.....Stop letting BO get away with this!
How about we wait and let McCain talk about the economy during the ECONOMY DEBATE.
It will air LIVE and UNEDITED by the MSN and it will have a huge audience.
McCain -v- PORKER
This thing ended the day McCain “suspended” his campaign and went back to Washington to do nothing.
As much as I would like to think it isn’t...it is.
Well NB, as you know, I have been supporting Senator McCain since 1985...
This is not over.
I trust polls half as much as I trust sanfrannan.
According to Rass, Bush lost in 2000 and 2004 at this stage of the campaign by an even larger margin.
Trust me.
McCain/Palin takes PA, OH, VA, IN, MI, CO, NV.
No, I’m not smoking anything or under the influence of alcohol, those are good people in the those states — they want to vote for an American — they want to vote for a Veteran — they want to vote for someone that they know will do whatever it takes to keep their family safe and able to continue to go about their lives and not have to worry that the man in the white house is traveling overseas and talking about “the stupid redneck hillbilly’s” back home and weakening the military.
Sarah represents those states core beliefs and values much more that BHO or Joe — BHO cannot make that connection (and before any of the DU freak out — it’s got nothing to with race) because BHO has lived a life that this far has been of privilege and insulation, far from the woods and creeks and streams and Friday night football games and Scout weekends and church basement suppers, he doesn’t have a clue what makes these people tick.
These are the people that teach their children the meaning of the American Flag, what the military represents, and why we pray...BHO, he can’t relate to these people...what they do, makes absolutely no sense to him at all.
Seriously, “what has he suffered,” to be an American?
What has he had to endure while attending his Ivy League college?
What has he possibly done so far in his life that can possibly compare to those people in those states?
But what we do know, what we know about BHO is who his friends and associates are.
What we do know about those states and those American’s in those states — they will judge the man by the company he keeps.
At least those American’s in those states know what Senator McCain has endured to defend America and they know he wouldn’t sell us out to look good in the eyes of some French snobs at some slobbering liberal party like BHO would.
Hell, BHO has already done it once in San Francisco — why wouldn’t he do it again. Like Judas selling out Jesus for a few silver coins — BHO sold out those people out in those states for a few pieces of silver...he talked about them one way in front of them and talked about them another when he was in San Francisco and Rev. Wright...yeah.
Character, judgement, and courage — words that fit John McCain like a glove.
Have faith...this ain’t over by a long shot. Keep up the good fight...
Historically since 1944, only two Democrats have captured more than 50% of the vote in Presidential races. The two were LBJ in 1964 with 61%+ and JC in 1976 with 50%+. I don’t think Obama is going to be the exception to the rule.
Let’s see those numbers next week. On second thought, I don’t want to see them. Thanks to the US House, things just got even uglier.
On Sept 29 poll Kerry was ahead by 2% 47% to 45%. Bush later won the election 51% to 48%!
And the young Dem voters usually only turn out about 43%!
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