Where the Polls Went Wrong (Reagan/Carter 1980)

Time ^ | 12/1/1980 | John F. Stacks

[tatown]

Reagan's landslide challenges the pulse-taker profession

For weeks before the presidential election, the gurus of public opinion polling were nearly unanimous in their findings. In survey after survey, they agreed that the coming choice between President Jimmy Carter and Challenger Ronald Reagan was "too close to call." A few points at most, they said, separated the two major contenders.

But when the votes were counted, the former California Governor had defeated Carter by a margin of 51% to 41% in the popular vote—a rout for a U.S. presidential race. In the electoral college, the Reagan victory was a 10-to-l avalanche that left the President holding only six states and the District of Columbia.

After being so right for so long about presidential elections—the pollsters' findings had closely agreed with the voting results for most of the past 30 years—how could the surveys have been so wrong? The question is far more than technical. The spreading use of polls by the press and television has an important, if unmeasurable, effect on how voters perceive the candidates and the campaign, creating a kind of synergistic effect: the more a candidate rises in the polls, the more voters seem to take him seriously.

[truthandlife]

Rush talking about this one now!

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

Interesting. This thread was just posted prominently on BadBlue.

If you still link to Drudge, by the way, you should look at BadBlue. Drudge figured prominently in the Romney slander against Newt before the Florida primary, and now appears to be acting as a surrogate for Filth Obama.

Hank

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

Interesting. This thread was just posted prominently on BadBlue.

If you still link to Drudge, by the way, you should look at BadBlue. Drudge figured prominently in the Romney slander against Newt before the Florida primary, and now appears to be acting as a surrogate for Filth Obama.

Hank