I'm not sure. McCain has $66 million, and just today got $84 million in fed funds. So up to this point, I kind of think McCain has been playing footsie with his ads. There is also a story out from McCain insiders today saying their polls tell them they have a shot at IA, MN, and WI. Now, I don't believe that for a minute---but based on your theory, since they are spending money there, Obama must be in trouble.
And while NC has "never been in contention," every election season I HEAR that it is "in contention."
MN is definitely in play. I've lived here for 5 presidential elections in THE most democratic stronghold and I have never, ever seen a yard sign for a Republican presidential candidate. Now I am seeing McCain signs. The Obama signs out number them probably 3 to 1. But I know for a fact the McCain signs are getting stolen. I'm just saying for a McCain sign to even appear means that something is up.