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Hotline/FD Tracking Poll: Obama 47%, McCain 41% (Obama +5 from yesterday)
Real Clear Politics ^ | 10/9/2008 | Real Clear Politics

Posted on 10/09/2008 7:23:35 AM PDT by tatown

Obama 47%, McCain 41%

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: poll
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To: crosslink

He also has a 2 pt. lead over McCain among men.

This does not makes sense. I cannot see guys voting for Obama. Hell, even the Log Cabin Gay guys are voting for McCain...lol. This particular survey is crap. He might be ahead with woman but no way by men.


41 posted on 10/09/2008 7:35:56 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: tatown

2 of 3 showing Obama +15(am I understanding your correctly?). If that’s the case then I will not pay this any attention.


42 posted on 10/09/2008 7:36:22 AM PDT by wiseprince
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To: tatown

BIG LEAGUE BRAVO SIERRA ALERT!!!!!!!!

All the polls are crap, but this one is more obvious than others.

10/8 Poll Sample 41% dem 36% Rep 18% Ind

10/7 Poll Sample 40% dem 38% Rep 18% Ind

Two issues here:

1. Party ID swings 3% in ONE DAY with only one third of your sample coming on that day?

2. The total samples only reach 95-95% on either of the days, which is impossible unless they are asking about third parties. Is there really going to be a 4-5% other party vote on election day? If so, the pollsters need to ask about Libertarian and Green Party, along with Ralph Nerder.


43 posted on 10/09/2008 7:37:04 AM PDT by johncocktoasten (Obama/Biden '08, in and of itself, A Bridge To Nowhere)
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To: tatown

Did I promote it??? Yes or no?


44 posted on 10/09/2008 7:37:28 AM PDT by Perdogg ("That One" for President - of Kenya, Say no to Barack Odinga)
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To: The G Man

41%D, 36%R, 18%I.

This is so stupid. If I ran a survey, I would ask 35/35/30 who they plan to vote for. If I oversample or undersample than fine, but at least it would be closer to what it actually would be.


45 posted on 10/09/2008 7:37:41 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: crosslink
He also has a 2 pt. lead over McCain among men

These jerks want us to believe that Jeremiah Wright apprentice is getting more votes among men than Bill Clinton got in 1992, and 1996, and Gore got in 2000, and Kerry got in 2004.

46 posted on 10/09/2008 7:38:03 AM PDT by jveritas (Use the nuclear option against Obama: Jeremiah Wright)
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To: rom

Eh..whatever. No other polls show her slipping, and the VP debate was tied with the most ever watched debate including presidential debates.


47 posted on 10/09/2008 7:38:34 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: napscoordinator
The real story in this election is going to be the union guys and moderates who don't vote. I have many GM workers in my area and i have spoke to them in the last few weeks. They will tell people at the plant they are voting for ONE but after a few beers they will admit they cannot stand the limp wrist-ed liberal.
48 posted on 10/09/2008 7:40:36 AM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: tatown

How do they pick the respondents?

Are they they noozpeeps?

ACORN members?

The hopenitized?

I don’t really believe them, because their sampling methods are suspect.


49 posted on 10/09/2008 7:40:56 AM PDT by Califreak ("They're not people... They're the ACLU!")
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To: snarkytart

More crazy wild swings that do not make sense. Just get out there and vote.


50 posted on 10/09/2008 7:41:46 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: The G Man

So that leaves 5 per cent missing....
and how are they surveying by the population enmass or by electoral college shaping?


51 posted on 10/09/2008 7:42:39 AM PDT by mdmathis6
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To: GoCards
Do Not Believe these crappy Polls .
Each one of these Pollsters fell for the Axelrod
and are oversampling dem big time.
The last two Pres elections were 50/50 in turnout !
None of these pollster are using that fact to
do these pathetic tracking poll propaganda !
Where did this new tracking poll come from and who financed it ???
52 posted on 10/09/2008 7:43:00 AM PDT by ncalburt
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To: Perdogg

No but others did. Additionally, Sean Hannity promoted it last night on TV!


53 posted on 10/09/2008 7:43:49 AM PDT by tatown
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To: crosslink
Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%

Yep...at least 2-3% too many Democrats, but probably closer to 4% too many (Democrats haven't exceeded 37% in any election cycle since 2000, and that includes 2006). The Republican number is about right. If you subtract 3 extra points from the Dems and then add them to the Independent column, the real "lead" in this poll is more like 46-44 or thereabouts. If you subtract an additional point to match the 2006 voter turnout, it's more like 46-45. And if you use the 2004 turnout (our last Presidential election), McCain actually pulls ahead slightly.

54 posted on 10/09/2008 7:44:33 AM PDT by kesg
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To: Longstreet63

It’s impossible for Obama to be leading among men.


55 posted on 10/09/2008 7:45:52 AM PDT by puroresu (Enjoy ASIAN CINEMA? See my Freeper page for recommendations (updated!).)
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To: crosslink

They will tell people at the plant they are voting for ONE but after a few beers they will admit they cannot stand the limp wrist-ed liberal.

That is great news. In fact, I don’t even care if millions of people tell me that they are going to vote for Obama when in fact they won’t. Let them get it out of their system. For some reason if telling me they are going to vote for Obama is going to make them feel better...all the better as long as they don’t in reality. lol.


56 posted on 10/09/2008 7:45:55 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: tatown

what does this have to do with me?


57 posted on 10/09/2008 7:46:11 AM PDT by Perdogg ("That One" for President - of Kenya, Say no to Barack Odinga)
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To: Perdogg

Nothing, I was responding to an attack for posting this poll!


58 posted on 10/09/2008 7:47:00 AM PDT by tatown
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To: TNCMAXQ
Still it is hard to believe this many people change their mind on a daily basis. Some of those number swings are stunning.

Yeh.

The trouble is, McCain just can't seem to close the gap, nor close the deal.

Yet, neither can Obama.

Obama couldn't close the deal in the Dem primaries, even. But he did eek out a win.

Unless McCain shows something more than he has so far, he isn't going to eek out this win. His continued pandering to those across the aisle and his promising boatloads of new handouts aren't winning him many converts.
59 posted on 10/09/2008 7:47:02 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: jveritas

Anyone know what the margin was among men in ‘04 with Bush over Kerry? As I recall the male vote has gone substantially Republican for the last several elections.


60 posted on 10/09/2008 7:47:50 AM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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