Newsweek Poll: Obama 52 McCain 41 (Dem +13)

http://www.newsweek.com/id/163337 ^

[Longstreet63]

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS Total Obama/Biden Total McCain/Palin Other candidate Undecided CURRENT TOTAL 52 41 1 6 =100

[scrabblehack]

Well, if Hillary supporters really had been 230/280 = 57% of the Democrats, she’d be the nominee...I’m guessing the question was simply “Are you a Hillary Clinton supporter?”
without trying to tease out whether she was first choice over Obama.

On the other hand, teasing it out wouldn’t tilt 88-7 very much.

[moose2004]

You’re still at it huh? No they don’t know it, sorry to ruin your day or night troll.

[moose2004]

“Where do you live that you see no McCain signs and lots of Obama?”

Obviously a very blue State.

[cardinal4]

Its Missouri, actually. In this part of the county, you will find former TWA employees, Ford Truck plant employees, and Boeing Machinists. White union Democrats who always vote dem. Now the Plant is shut, TWA is gone, and the Machinist work is being farmed out. The union took care of them when they were employed, now they are looking to Obama for a hand out. And the GOP is wasting money in Ohio. Missouri is also home to the truthers. But lets keep wringing our hands over polls and not concentrating on the task at hand.

1. Missouri- the real bellweather.

2. Minnesota-If the GOP cant beat Al Franken, we have no business campaigning.

3. New Mexico- aside from Santa Fe, there is no reason in the world the GOP cant win here.

4. Michigan-very winnable, Obama always reminded me of that crooked mayor.

5. Virgina- How the hell did we ever let this state get away?

But lets keep spending money in Ohio..

[moose2004]

Sorry, but I don’t believe for 1 second Mac is going to lose MO. I travel there on business all the time, and I know St Louis is an incredibly BLUE and corrupt Dem city (I love the way judges order polls to remain open in St Louis past their closing times in almost every election). So yes, St Louis and vicinity, I believe it is Obama territory, but not the rest of the State. By the way. I’m from VA, we’re not going to lose there either.

[cardinal4]

Just blowing off steam, I guess. I get so sick of hearing about Ohio! Look me up next time you are in the STL!

[GoSarah]

kesg, I’m curious... we’ve discussed undecideds before. How does the percentage of undecided RVs compare historically at this point in time? This seems pretty large to me, but I do not know.

[kesg]

kesg, I’m curious... we’ve discussed undecideds before. How does the percentage of undecided RVs compare historically at this point in time?

I don't know. Well, my past recollection is that many of them do not make up their minds until the last week before the election, sometimes -- as in 2000 -- in the last weekend before the election.

[moose2004]

No problem my FRiend. Whenever I’m there I always have a great time, I really like music, St Louis has many excellent spots to see some great bands. Take care and have a great weekend.

[Common Tator]

Let me tell you about ACORN in 2004. In 2004 everyone knew that Ohio would determine if Bush or Kerry would be president.

ACORN came to Ohio and turned in some 250,000 fake registrations. There were over a 1,000 in small Pike County Ohio. I was sent by the Bush campaign to get a list of the fake registrations in Pike County. The campaign sent a local lawyer with me to make sure that the Board Of Elections in Pike county allowed me to get the list of names.

The night before the election several thousand trained lawyers were flown into Ohio. They were used as observers at every precinct in the state that had fake registrations. They announced themselves as lawyers and that they were there to challenge any illegal voters.

Each had a cell phone set up to call Federal Marshall’s in if anyone tried to vote the fake registrations.

In Ohio not a single one of those fake registrations were voted. Election night you may recall that Kerry was crying about there being 250 thousand votes in Ohio that had not been counted. He refused to concede. The next morning he called every board of elections in everyone of Ohio’s 88 counties asking about his missing 250 thousand votes. That is when he learned that all 250 thousand of them were fake.

The only conclusion was ACORN ripped off the Kerry campaign for a little over 2.5 million dollars or that Bush had made certain they would be caught and punished in federal courts.

You may not know it but all advertising in federal political campaigns by federal law must be cash in advance. With three weeks to go final spot buys have been made and paid for. Candidates can only cancel and get the money back.

Yet this week Bush raised 2 million dollars in Florida for McCain. There are over 400 thousand fake registrations in Florida alone. I leave it to you to guess how the 2 million
is going to be used. I don’t know either.. but I can guess.

People on sites like this think that those who want to be paid to vote fake registrations will do so when they know the end result is years in prison. Ohio 2004 proves they won’t even try.

Campaigns that do illegal things always isolate the candidate so he or she can’t be convicted. They are always the last to know about illegal activities. I doubt seriously if Kerry ever told anyone what he learned in those 88 phone calls. “I got ripped off for over 2.5 million bucks!” is not something Kerry would want known.

And why didn’t the democrat board of elections members tell the Democrats what ACORN was doing? Certainly they all knew. I think they told local party officials to not try it.. that the Bush campaign knew who the fake voters were and were just waiting to send as many democrats to prison as possible.

But to the extent local party officials were involved it is not likely they would tell those above them. I decided not to try to steal votes because I would get caught is not something they would want a lot of people to know.

But those that think McCain is just standing by and doing nothing greatly underestimate McCain and the RNC. Saying “Here is how we are going to stop you from stealing votes!” so the Democrats can figure out a better way to steal the election is not very smart either. But lots of people on web sights think that is the way the situation should be handled.

To reduce the chances of being proven guilty I suspect ACORN was just charged with registering the 250 thousand. Most likely it was some other organization that was charged with finding the people to vote the fake names. I would not be surprised to find out the FBI is monitoring that organization as well.

It was the RNC that stopped the illegal voting in Ohio in 2004.. Democrats would be very stupid to believe they won’t stop it again.

[longtermmemmory]

where are the RNC observers in FL keeping the nursing home dead from voting?

[longtermmemmory]

I think the Obama camp is banking on fraud. They are having their SHOUTING spokesman simply YELLING during interviews to drown out the opposition.

folks we need pollworkers. We need people to volunteer with the efforts of the RNC to block vote fraud.

[calex59]

These frickin’ polls are just ridiculous. They are a blatant attempt to influence and election. This is the most terrible election I have ever been through. The corruption of the media,the voter fraud, the fake polls, not just a little oversampled but huge oversampling. McCain is going to win, anyone who believes these polls have sh** for brains, and that includes all the “sky is falling” freepers who have seemed to come out of the woodwork lately.

[Mr. Silverback]

Check this out...I compare the “Whites by 1 and losing men by 14” to Dole’s performance.

Dole lost by almost 9 points in the PV and 220(!) in the EV.

Here’s his performance among whites:

Income over $75,000: Won by 15 points
Income under $75,000: Lost by 1 point
Non-college educated: Lost by 1 point
College educated: (source doesn’t say, but describes Bush’s 9 point win as “somewhat larger” than Dole’s win. Call it 5 or more.)

Now, let’s take a look at white men. Now, of course, we know that any survey of men is going to include a significant percentage of non-whites, but I still think if we look at white men it will shed light on the numbers for men, because whites are the majority and few black and Hispanic men will vote for the GOP candidate. Ergo, a significant loss or win among white males almost certainly means a significant win or loss among men, period.

White male without a 4 year degree: Won by 7 points
White male with 4 year degree or higher: Won by 17
White men under $75,000: Won by 8
White men over $75,000: Won by 20

In other words, this guy lost his butt and won white males of every sort by a significant margin.
Source: http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=lessons_for_next_time

So, let’s forget entirely about the Bradley Effect and just consider these numbers for one of the worst candidates (a fine man, but an awful campaign and choice for nominee) in a long time for the GOP. I don’t have enough stats math to make a definite conclusion about the amount of movement (or even know if it’s possible to do so) but it seems to me that if this poll were true we’d be looking at a change in white male voting patterns of somewhere north of 15%.

I’m not sure I’d buy that if there was video of McCain marrying a goat. I’m sure not buying it in the current situation.

Oh,and one last thing: The last poll NYT/CBS released before the 1996 election had Dole down by 16%.
Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/1996/11/05/camp.t_1.php

[Thickman]

+4 in '06

It was only +3 in '06.

[Thickman]

3. New Mexico- aside from Santa Fe, there is no reason in the world the GOP cant win here.

Sorry to disagree, but NM is totally dumbocrat. The only safe pubbie seat is southern NM. Northern idstrict is pure blue and the district encompassing Alb is always about a 1% race either way. After this election we are going to have a dem governor, two dem senators, probably 2 dem congressmen and 1 pubbie in the house. We may luck out and get the ABQ congressional seat . . . maybe.

[Dr. Free Market]

My mistake, it was +4 in ‘96.

[Maverick68]

bump

[adorno]

Newsweek Poll: Obama 52 McCain 41

Polls are, of course, indications of how candidates are doing, at a particular point. They are snapshots of ratings, or of how voters view the candidates at a given point in time.

The polls offer "ratings' for the people who might be interested on how the public feels. TV and radio stations are also rated, but more directly by the number of people in the viewing audience.

If there are polls for just about any event or subject or person, then why not polls about the polls.

My suggestion would be a ratings system for the polls or pollsters. I would suggest a rating system of between 0 and 10 for the polls or pollsters, with the lower numbers indicating poor credibility, and 10 being the highest credibility which can be bestowed on a pollster..

So, if we think that Newsweek deserves very little credibility for their polls, we could give it a credibility rating of between 1 to 3. Rasmussen might get our credibility rating of between 7 to 9, Gallup might be somewhere in the 5-7 range, and Zogby might get something like 4-6. But, that's just me. Others might have better numbers for the Pollsters.

Then, when someone wants to quote a poll, like is being done with the thread starter, we could include our credibility rating in with the headline. Then, as an example, the headline "Newsweek Poll: Obama 52 McCain 41", would then include our rating for Newsweek polls along with the headline, and we would end up with the headline: "Newsweek Poll: Obama 52 McCain 41 (credibility rating: 1-3)"